Trade Review – How We Held $CYBR for a 47% GAIN!

Trade Review – How We Held $CYBR for a 47% GAIN!

Earlier this year, we captured an explosive move in $CYBR in our nightly swing and position trading newsletter The Wagner Daily.

Why We Believed $CYBR Was Ready To Explode Higher

The daily chart of $CYBR first caught our attention in early January by setting higher lows within a basing pattern during a market correction when all broad market indices were setting lower lows. At that time, most small and midcap growth stocks had corrected 40-50% off highs but $CYBR pulled back less than 25% (sign of strength).

The daily chart was impressive, but what really sold us on the trade was the monthly chart, where the price was chopping around in a tight range for a few months just below all time highs. A breakout from the current base would lead to a new all-time high with no resistance above!

$CYBR MONTHLY

Along with the strong technical action we discussed above, $CYBR produced two quarters in a row of impressive earnings and sales growth at +71% and +92% (eps) and +35% and +31% (sales).

How We Entered

On the close of January 4, our market timing model went on a buy signal, alerting us to begin to put money to work on the long side. A few days later on 1/9/19, $CYBR cleared the downtrend line of the consolidation on a pick up in volume, which was a buy signal. We patiently waited for a low risk entry point to emerge on a pullback, but the price action just chopped around in a tight range, allowing the 10-day moving average to catch up. On the night of 1/17, we alerted subscribers of The Wagner Daily that we were placing a buy stop over the 1/17 high after the price touched the rising 10-day MA. The buy stop triggered the following day.

$CYBR daily

When To Take Profits

When to exit a winner is a very personal question, as it depends on the time frame of the trader. Shorter term swing traders can sell $CYBR into strength when it’s up 10-20%. We prefer to hold stocks for 20-30% gains or more, if possible, depending on the strength of the trend.

Our first exit in $CYBR was simply a sell into strength to take some profits off the table. We sold 20% of our position for a 44% gain.

On April 4, $CYBR sold off below the 20-day EMA before closing back above on a pick up in volume. To guard against a breakdown below the 20-day EMA, we raised our stop beneath the low of April 4 on 40% of the original position, which triggered on April 8 for a 42% gain.

 

Our final exit was on April 17, as we sold the remaining 40% for a 52% gain due to a bearish engulfing candle that printed after a failed move to new highs.

$CYBR daily

 

Our sells above are not perfect. However, using the 20-day EMA as a guide during the first few weeks in the position allowed us to hold on long enough to capture a 47% gain, which is pretty good! The one sell we’d like to have back was the second exit on April 8, as we were shaken out of strong position on a slight dip below the 20-day EMA. We should have been more patient with the action since the price failed to violate the 20-day EMA on a closing basis.

The important take from the chart above is that big winners tend to take care of themselves.

Did you like the above trading insights and analysis? If so, Sign up now to receive your real-time trade alerts, hot stock picks, and educational market analysis included with your Wagner Daily subscription.

As always, drop us a comment below to share your thoughts on this article.

 

Please leave your comment below!

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Follow us on Twitter

Latest Tweets

@MorpheusTrading