Wagner Daily Lite – March 15, 2012 – Brazil & Emerging Markets ETFs poised to move higher ($EWZ, $EWX)

Stocks closed mixed yesterday on lighter trade. Small and mid cap issues underperformed, as large cap issues closed near break even. The small-cap Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap 400 gave back some of Tuesday’s gains, as they fell 0.9% and 0.7% respectively. The S&P 500 slid 0.1% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to close higher by 0.1%. The Nasdaq ended the session fractionally higher. Sectors demonstrating the most strength yesterday included computer hardware, healthcare and steel. Relative weakness was found in transportation, coal, oil services, telecom, utilities and gold mining.

Market internals ended the session mixed. Volume slid on the Nasdaq by 1.9% and on the NYSE by 4.1%. However, declining volume topped advancing volume across the board. The spread ratio ended the day at -1.7 to 1 on the NYSE and -1.4 to 1 on the Nasdaq.

Yesterday, the iShares Brazil Index Fund (EWZ) sold off for most of the session before recovering to close near the day’s highs. Further, the reversal occurred on high volume which adds bullish credence to the move. A rally above the four-day high of $68.30 could present a buying opportunity in this ETF:

Over the past five sessions, the SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small-Cap Fund (EWX) has been consolidating at its 10-day moving average and just below resistance of its recent swing high. A volume- fueled move above the two day high of $47.49 could provide a buy entry trigger for this ETF:

Through mid-afternoon yesterday, both the NYSE and Nasdaq were on pace to deliver a bearish distribution day. We never like to see distribution days on the heels of an accumulation day. However, by the close, volume finished lower and the DJIA and Nasdaq managed to find their way into the black. What could have been a disaster ended up being relatively bullish price action for the market. The market showed the kind of resiliency we like to see in a bull market. 

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