{"id":3149,"date":"2013-09-19T05:50:31","date_gmt":"2013-09-19T09:50:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/?p=3149"},"modified":"2022-04-06T15:05:06","modified_gmt":"2022-04-06T19:05:06","slug":"buy-silver-again-slv-agq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/buy-silver-again-slv-agq\/","title":{"rendered":"If At First You Don&#8217;t Succeed, Buy Silver Again ($SLV, $AGQ)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As you may recall from <a title=\"$SLV bull flag breakout\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/bull-flag-breakout-silver-etf-slv\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">this August 26 blog post<\/a>, iShares Silver Trust ($SLV) was recently in the process of following through on a &#8220;bull flag&#8221; chart pattern. However, the bull flag breakout failed, causing $SLV to break down below support of its 20-day exponential moving average on September 12.<\/p>\n<p>When $SLV sliced through near-term support on September 12, it caused our swing trade in $AGQ (a leveraged silver ETF) to hit its protective stop, so we quickly cut the loss. Nevertheless, we continued stalking the silver ETF for possible buy re-entry (stay tuned for a <strong>mini-lesson on the psychology of re-entering losing trades<\/strong> near the end of this post).<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">TABLE OF CONTENTS<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/buy-silver-again-slv-agq\/#Back_With_A_Vengeance\" >Back With A Vengeance!<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/buy-silver-again-slv-agq\/#Stand_By_For_Re-Entry\" >Stand By For Re-Entry<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/buy-silver-again-slv-agq\/#Check_Your_Ego_At_The_Door\" >Check Your Ego At The Door<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/buy-silver-again-slv-agq\/#What_Else_Is_Shaking\" >What Else Is Shaking?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Back_With_A_Vengeance\"><\/span><strong>Back With A Vengeance!<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Precious Metals ETFs made a <em>massive<\/em> move yesterday, as the SPDR Gold Trust ($GLD) and iShares Silver Trust ($SLV) jumped 4.4% and 6.4% respectively. Considering both silver and gold were trading substantially <em>lower <\/em>until late afternoon, the\u00a0closing price gains were even more impressive.<\/p>\n<p>Yesterday, $SLV &#8220;undercut&#8221; key support of its 50-day moving average on an intraday basis, but reversed sharply higher after doing so. Volume also surged to 300% its average daily level. This tells us the impressive bullish reversal was confirmed by institutional buying (banks, mutual funds, hedge funds, etc.):<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"SLV Daily\" alt=\"$SLV BULLISH REVERSAL CANDLE\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2013\/130919SLV.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>From the peak of its August 27 high, down to the intraday low of September 18, $SLV made a <a title=\"Fibonacci Explained\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/fibonacci-for-swing-trading\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%<\/a> of the last wave up (August 7-27). Since this is considered the last line of defense on a pullback, yesterday&#8217;s bullish reversal came just in time.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Stand_By_For_Re-Entry\"><\/span><strong>Stand By For Re-Entry<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Because of the very convincing bullish reversal off the 50-day moving average (especially with the massive volume), we are now planning to re-enter the silver ETF trade because we expect the price to follow through to the upside over the next few weeks.<\/p>\n<p>As for a potential upside target, let&#8217;s take a look at the longer-term weekly chart below:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"SLV Weekly\" alt=\"$SLV BULLISH REVERSAL CANDLE\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2013\/130919SLV2.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Since $SLV is a shorter-term trend reversal trade (as opposed to a breakout to new highs), we are <em>not<\/em> looking for a multi-wave advance because there simply is too much overhead resistance.<\/p>\n<p>As such, our target is a rally to near the declining 40-week moving average (nearly the same as the 200-day moving average).<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Check_Your_Ego_At_The_Door\"><\/span><strong>Check Your Ego At The Door<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>When I was a new trader, I psychologically had a difficult time re-entering a trade that I had recently taken a loss in.<\/p>\n<p>This was particularly true if I was re-entering the trade at a higher price than where I recently sold it.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s that damn emotion we all must face on a daily basis&#8230;<em>ego<\/em>. <strong>It&#8217;s simply hard for most humans to admit when they&#8217;re wrong.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>However, I quickly realized that my ego was costing me a lot of money <em>and<\/em> my overall mentality was faulty because stocks and ETFs have no memory; they don&#8217;t know and couldn&#8217;t care less whether or not I previously entered a trade.<\/p>\n<p>Rather, I eventually figured out that\u00a0<strong>each new trade entry objectively stands on its own merit, without regard to any previous gains or losses.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, I discovered that some of <strong>my most profitable trades were those in which the timing of my first entry was wrong<\/strong>, but I subsequently re-entered the trade when momentum turned back in my favor (don&#8217;t confuse this with &#8220;revenge trading&#8221;).<\/p>\n<p>The reason such trade re-entries are quite profitable is because most other traders and investors sell their positions near the lows (point of maximum pain), thereby absorbing overhead supply.<\/p>\n<p>This, in turn, makes it much easier for a stock\/ETF to surge to new highs when it starts heading back up again.<\/p>\n<p>Since the silver ETF trade setup is back in play, subscribing members of\u00a0<strong><a title=\"The Wagner Daily\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">our nightly swing trade report<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0should now note our exact entry, stop, and target prices for ProShares Ultra Silver ($AGQ) in the &#8220;watchlist&#8221; section of today&#8217;s newsletter (we will buy $AGQ, but prefer to do our chart analysis in $SLV).<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3154\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3154\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-3154 \" alt=\"Current open positions\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130919open.png\" width=\"610\" height=\"448\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130919open-110x80.png 110w, https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130919open-300x220.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 610px) 100vw, 610px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3154\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Wagner Daily open positions (through Sept. 18, 2013)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Else_Is_Shaking\"><\/span><strong>What Else Is Shaking?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>As for the\u00a0<em>existing<\/em> open ETF positions in our swing trading newsletter, both US Oil Fund ($USO) and Guggenheim Solar ETF ($TAN) rallied at least 2.5% higher on increased volume yesterday.<\/p>\n<p>$TAN is now showing an <strong>unrealized price gain of 28%<\/strong> since <a title=\"Recap Of July Entry Into $TAN\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/etf-swing-trades-tan-smh\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">our July 2 entry<\/a>, and is poised to make another leg up.<\/p>\n<p>The iShares DJ Oil &amp; Gas ETF ($IEO) and First Trust Natural Gas Index ($FCG) also added to their recent breakout gains, and both ETFs are now trading at fresh 52-week highs. We will continue to trail a stop higher to lock in gains.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, yesterday&#8217;s buy setup in S&amp;P Biotech SPDR ($XBI) triggered for breakout entry and we are now long.<\/p>\n<p>The individual stock side of our model portfolio is rocking as well. Fully <strong>100% of our stock trades (11 out of 11 positions) in <a title=\"The Wagner Daily newsletter\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i>The Wagner Daily<\/i><\/a> newsletter are now &#8220;in the money.&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The highlight of these is $YELP, which is now showing an<strong> unrealized gain of 36.4% <\/strong>since our August 21 buy entry (review our analysis of $YELP at original time of entry <a title=\"$YELP Buy Setup\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/yelp-swing-trade-entry\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Since the extremely bullish price action in $YELP has not yet given us a reason to sell, we continue to let the gains ride.<\/p>\n<p><em><\/em><em>Has your ego ever gotten in the way of re-entering a valid trade setup? What other emotions have you struggled with as a trader? Share your comments below.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<script id=\"mNCC\" language=\"javascript\">  medianet_width='300';  medianet_height= '250';  medianet_crid='775516228';  <\/script>  <script id=\"mNSC\" src=\"https:\/\/contextual.media.net\/nmedianet.js?cid=8CUYGRI27\" language=\"javascript\"><\/script> <\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As you may recall from this August 26 blog post, iShares Silver Trust ($SLV) was recently in the process of following through on a &#8220;bull flag&#8221; chart pattern. However, the bull flag breakout failed, causing $SLV to break down below support of its 20-day exponential moving average on September 12. When $SLV sliced through near-term [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-trading-strategy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3149"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3149\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11374,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3149\/revisions\/11374"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}