{"id":3612,"date":"2014-01-14T08:03:27","date_gmt":"2014-01-14T13:03:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/?p=3612"},"modified":"2022-04-06T15:05:04","modified_gmt":"2022-04-06T19:05:04","slug":"no-worry-market-pullback","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/no-worry-market-pullback\/","title":{"rendered":"Why You Should Not Worry About A Stock Market Pullback"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_3616\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3616\" style=\"width: 245px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3616 \" alt=\"Don&#039;t worry about pullback\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/why-worry.jpg\" width=\"245\" height=\"300\" title=\"\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3616\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alfred E. Neuman isn&#8217;t worried<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Stocks fell hard yesterday (January 13), igniting the usual fears that it&#8217;s time to sprint for the exit doors and sell all your stocks.<\/p>\n<p>But just wait! <strong>Grab a seat, close your eyes, take a deep breath,<\/strong> and let&#8217;s objectively assess the situation on a technical level.<\/p>\n<p>Although the NASDAQ and S&amp;P 500 tumbled 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, you must ignore fear-mongering of the financial media and <strong>keep the January 13 sell-off in perspective.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If you are new to stock trading, you must know that <em>bull markets do not trend in a straight line<\/em> (the same is true of bear markets).<\/p>\n<p>Rather, even the strongest uptrending market undergoes the occasional pullback along the way. Then, after stocks catch their breath for a month or two, buyers return to the scene and once again drive the market to new highs.<\/p>\n<p>This cycle of a rally, pullback (or consolidation), then rally again is what forms the &#8220;higher highs&#8221; and &#8220;higher lows&#8221; of any healthy market uptrend.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, the longer a market rallies <em>without<\/em> a pullback, the more severe the eventual correction off the highs will be. As such, <em>it&#8217;s better to have a correction now, <\/em>rather than after stocks have entered into a parabolic moonshot.<\/p>\n<p><strong>I\u00a0personally welcomed yesterday&#8217;s pullback<\/strong>\u00a0because it is likely the start of a healthy, short-term correction that is necessary in order for stocks to take a break before eventually marching higher again. But in the meantime, you may be wondering&#8230;<\/p>\n<h1>Where will the main stock market indexes find support?<\/h1>\n<p>Because of the intensity of the January 13 sell-off, it is unlikely that stocks will immediately snap back. Rather, short-term <strong>bearish momentum is likely to keep the bulls in check<\/strong> for<em> at least<\/em> the next several weeks (one to two months more likely).<\/p>\n<p>To help give you an idea of where the S&amp;P 500, NASDAQ, and other indexes may find their next levels of price support, I have annotated the daily charts of several popular, broad-based ETFs.\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">While looking at the charts below, keep in mind:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>During stock market corrections, key technical support levels generally get &#8220;undercut&#8221; (quickly probe below the obvious support level, then rebound just a few days later).<\/li>\n<li>It is better to think of support as an area or zone, rather than just a precise &#8220;line in the sand.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>We love to see <a title=\"Examples of bullish reversal candlesticks\" href=\"https:\/\/stockcharts.com\/school\/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestick_bullish_\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bullish reversal candlesticks<\/a> (such as &#8220;hammers&#8221; or &#8220;engulfing&#8221; patterns) that substantially undercut key support levels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">TABLE OF CONTENTS<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/no-worry-market-pullback\/#S_P_500_ETF_SPY\" >S&amp;P 500 ETF ($SPY)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/no-worry-market-pullback\/#NASDAQ_100_ETF_QQQ\" >NASDAQ 100 ETF ($QQQ)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/no-worry-market-pullback\/#Dow_Jones_Industrials_ETF_DIA\" >Dow Jones Industrials ETF ($DIA)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/no-worry-market-pullback\/#Small-cap_Russell_2000_ETF_IWM\" >Small-cap Russell 2000 ETF ($IWM)<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"S_P_500_ETF_SPY\"><\/span>S&amp;P 500 ETF ($SPY)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Let&#8217;s begin with the S&amp;P 500 SPDR ($SPY), an ETF proxy for the benchmark S&amp;P 500 Index.<\/p>\n<p>The first zone of support for $SPY is convergence of its prior highs from November\/December and 50-day moving average (around $180-$181). If that band of support (not much below the current price) is breached, expect $SPY to find support near the prior &#8220;swing low&#8221; from December (labeled as &#8220;Support zone 2&#8221;):<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"$SPY support levels\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2014\/140114SPY.png\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"NASDAQ_100_ETF_QQQ\"><\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">NASDAQ 100 ETF ($QQQ)<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">PowerShares QQQ Trust ($QQQ), a very popular ETF that tracks the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 Index, is nearing support of its 50-day MA, which converges with its prior swing lows (around $85). The second zone of support is formed from the basing action in October and November (around $83):<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"$QQQ support levels\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2014\/140114QQQ.png\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Dow_Jones_Industrials_ETF_DIA\"><\/span>Dow Jones Industrials ETF ($DIA)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDR ($DIA) has support from a prior swing high and 50-day moving average, which are converging around the $160 area.<\/p>\n<p>The second level of support is from the highs of September and October 2o13, along with a prior swing low in December (around $157):<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"$DIA support levels\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2014\/140114DIA.png\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Small-cap_Russell_2000_ETF_IWM\"><\/span>Small-cap Russell 2000 ETF ($IWM)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF ($IWM) is currently sitting at support from its November 2013 high, as well as its rising 20-day exponential moving average.<\/p>\n<p>The next major support level is the 50-day moving average ($112 area), while the second zone of support is the prior swing lows (just below $110):<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"$IWM support levels\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2014\/140114IWM.png\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">As you can see, there is a plethora of technical support below the current prices of the\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">main stock market indexes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">As long as the major averages remain above their 50-day moving averages, and leadership stocks continue holding above pivotal support levels, our stock market timing model will remain in <a title=\"5 modes of our market timing model\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/market-timing-system\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&#8220;buy&#8221; mode<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">If you missed the most recent leg of the rally and have been waiting for a substantial pullback to start buying stocks, consider waiting for a bullish reversal pattern to form as the major indices test support.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1>Patience Pays Off Again<\/h1>\n<p>Over the past few days, we at Morpheus have been doing a bit of housekeeping in the portfolio of\u00a0<strong><a title=\"Learn about our swing trading newsletter\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">our swing trade newsletter<\/a> <\/strong>by taking profits on winning swing trades, while bailing out of a few dogs.<\/p>\n<p>On the January 13 open, we <strong>sold Tekmira Pharmaceutical Corp. ($TKMR) for a share price gain of +56.1%<\/strong> since\u00a0our November 29 buy entry.<\/p>\n<p>That same day, we unloaded HomeAway ($AWAY) for a 10% gain, and also locked in a gain of +15.3% in Direxion Financial Bull 3x ($FAS), a leveraged financial ETF, when it hit our tight trailing stop.<\/p>\n<p>On the downside, disappointing price action in US Silica ($SLCA) caused us to stop out with a 15.3% loss the same day (basically a wash with the 15.3% gain in $FAS).<\/p>\n<p>On January 10, we sold Montage Technology ($MONT) for\u00a0+21.2% gain\u00a0and partial shares of Shutterstock ($SSTK) for +18.5%.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Finally, we are selling Montage Technology Group ($MONT) on today&#8217;s open, in order to lock in the better part of our 27.4% unrealized gain. Although <strong>this trade is up nearly 30% since our entry just one week ago,<\/strong> we are making a judgment call to take the quick profit and run because $MONT is <em>not<\/em> an &#8220;A-rated&#8221; setup.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>In this blog, we like to remind you that<strong> lots of patience is necessary when holding on to winners,<\/strong> and several of the intermediate-term swing trades we&#8217;ve recently closed are a good example of this.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, never forget that it&#8217;s equally important to get the hell out of Dodge when stocks go the wrong way and hit your stops.<\/p>\n<h1>Don&#8217;t Make Like\u00a0Nostradamus<\/h1>\n<p>How deep will the developing correction take stocks, and how long will stocks remain in pullback mode? We don&#8217;t have a clue!<\/p>\n<p>More importantly, <strong>we\u00a0don&#8217;t even care<\/strong> because we will simply follow our rule-based trading plan, rather than becoming a hostage to emotions.<\/p>\n<p>In the near-term, our simple, objective plan is to take profits on non-core positions (momentum swing trades) when we can, while holding on to core positions (A-rated stocks) as long as the market timing model remains in &#8220;buy&#8221; mode.<\/p>\n<p>As always, the key to our trading system is <em>not to predict<\/em> what is going to happen, but to simply <em>react<\/em> to what is actually happening. Remember our mantra is to <em><strong>trade what you see, NOT what you think!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Want to profit from the hottest stock picks when the market heads back up again? If so,\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a title=\"Sign up for The Wagner Daily now\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff; text-decoration: underline;\">sign up now<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/span> for your 30-day risk-free subscription to<em> The Wagner Daily<\/em>\u00a0swing trading service.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"cfmonitor\"><center><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-7565144363001883\"; \/* Footer of content *\/ google_ad_slot = \"7002222565\"; google_ad_width = 300; google_ad_height = 250;\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\n\n\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/center><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stocks fell hard yesterday (January 13), igniting the usual fears that it&#8217;s time to sprint for the exit doors and sell all your stocks. But just wait! Grab a seat, close your eyes, take a deep breath, and let&#8217;s objectively assess the situation on a technical level. Although the NASDAQ and S&amp;P 500 tumbled 1.5% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-trading-strategy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3612","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3612"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3612\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11342,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3612\/revisions\/11342"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}