{"id":4416,"date":"2016-02-10T06:51:42","date_gmt":"2016-02-10T11:51:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/?p=4416"},"modified":"2022-04-06T15:05:02","modified_gmt":"2022-04-06T19:05:02","slug":"uup-dollar-weakness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/uup-dollar-weakness\/","title":{"rendered":"2 Hot ETFs To Buy While The US Dollar Is Weakening"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-4419\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/Dollar-on-falling-trend688-300x111.jpg\" alt=\"$UUP\" width=\"300\" height=\"111\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/Dollar-on-falling-trend688-300x111.jpg 300w, https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/Dollar-on-falling-trend688-110x41.jpg 110w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>On February 4, I walked through a few charts that showed why it was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/buy-gld-etf-2016\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">time to buy Gold ETFs<\/a> (or any other form\u00a0of gold).<\/p>\n<p>In the four trading days since that previous blog post,<strong> SPDR Gold Trust ($GLD)<\/strong>, a popular ETF proxy for the spot gold commodity, has cruised 4% higher.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0S&amp;P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indices tumbled 3.2% and 5.2% respectively during the same period, which is a\u00a0great example of why it pays to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/1118109139?tag=morptradgrou-20&amp;camp=14573&amp;creative=327641&amp;linkCode=as1&amp;creativeASIN=1118109139&amp;adid=00HPD75G7SPM18CG0N4Y&amp;&amp;ref-refURL=http%3A%2F%2Flocalhost%3A2876%2Fabout-us\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trade ETFs<\/a> with a low correlation to the direction of the stock market when equity sentiment turns bearish.<\/p>\n<p>Since\u00a0gold is often\u00a0viewed as a &#8220;flight to safety&#8221; play when stocks are weak, it&#8217;s likely that bullish momentum in\u00a0$GLD will continue in the near to intermediate-term.<\/p>\n<p>But even better is that strength in $GLD is now backed by weakness in the US Dollar, which has created another new buying opportunity in the <strong>Japanese Yen ETF ($FXY).<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s why it&#8217;s time to buy $FXY (and $GLD on a pullback)&#8230;<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">TABLE OF CONTENTS<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/uup-dollar-weakness\/#Key_Correlations\" >Key Correlations<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/uup-dollar-weakness\/#Weakening_Dollar_Strengthening_Yen\" >Weakening Dollar, Strengthening Yen<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/uup-dollar-weakness\/#Dont_Follow_The_Crowd\" >Don&#8217;t Follow The Crowd<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Key_Correlations\"><\/span><strong>Key Correlations<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>One of the most reliable charts\u00a0to monitor when trading gold ETFs, spot gold futures, or even physical <a href=\"https:\/\/online.kitco.com\/buy\/gold-silver.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gold coins<\/a>, is the <strong>US Dollar Index ETF ($UUP).<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As with everything else in the stock market, there are exceptions to the rule, but I have found that gold typically strengthens as the US dollar weakens (and vice versa).<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s an inverse correlation, just as we have seen between the direction of stocks and spot gold over the past week, but even more accurate most of the time.<\/p>\n<p>As such, let&#8217;s take a look at the weekly chart of $UUP to see one more reason why we remain\u00a0bullish on gold right now:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2014\/160210UUP.png\" alt=\"$UUP REVERSAL \" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>The recently established\u00a0&#8220;lower high&#8221; and &#8220;lower low&#8221; (shown above), combined with the break of key moving average support, tells us the longer-term uptrend in $UUP may be over.<\/p>\n<p>Specifically, last week&#8217;s selling and this weeks continuation lower has put $UUP below the 10, 40, and 60-week moving averages for the first time in nearly two years.<\/p>\n<p>With\u00a0both the 10 and 40-week moving averages now turning lower, $UUP is vulnerable to further selling in the coming weeks (and months).<\/p>\n<p>Continued bearish momentum in the US dollar ETF would likely force the 10-week moving average to cross below the 40-week moving average as well, which would produce another bearish trend reversal signal &#8212; and that&#8217;s good news for Gold bulls.<\/p>\n<p>Although we already have an unrealized gain of\u00a06.3% since buying $GLD in our <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">swing trading newsletter<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0(on January 27), the technicals indicate there may be substantially more upside to come, so pullbacks in gold are relatively low-risk buying opportunities.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Weakening_Dollar_Strengthening_Yen\"><\/span><strong>Weakening Dollar, Strengthening Yen<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>In addition to Gold ETFs, select foreign currency ETFs are also benefiting from newfound weakness in the US dollar.<\/p>\n<p>One such example can be found in the recent breakout of the Japanese Yen ETF ($FXY), which is shown on the weekly chart below:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2014\/160210FXY.png\" alt=\"FXY bullish reversal\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>While $UUP broke down below key support levels over the past two weeks, $FXY conversely broke out above resistance to a new 5-month high and has formed another &#8220;higher high&#8221;and &#8220;higher low.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>With the 10-week moving average\u00a0crossing above the 40-week average, and both averages now pointing upwards, bullish momentum is clearly picking up in the Japanese Yen ETF.<\/p>\n<p>Although\u00a0low-risk buying opportunities in the stock market may be hard to find in the current environment, solid buying opportunities remain in certain ETFs with a low correlation to stock market direction (such as precious metal and select foreign currency ETFs).<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Dont_Follow_The_Crowd\"><\/span><strong>Don&#8217;t Follow The Crowd<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Until Chinese stocks and the crude oil markets start to find some traction, US equities are likely to remain weak overall.<\/p>\n<p>Given the lack of market leadership in top stocks right now, it&#8217;s fair to say that any rally in the market is likely to be a short-lived bounce (and eventually shortable).<\/p>\n<p>But as I said before, that does\u00a0<em>not<\/em> mean there is a complete lack of profitable trading opportunities on the long side.<\/p>\n<p>Rather, you just need to look outside of stocks that everyone else is struggling to profit from, and instead\u00a0dive into the world of trading ETFs such as $GLD and $FXY.<\/p>\n<p>If you need help with this, just\u00a0sign up for your risk-free trial subscription to <strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Wagner Daily<\/a><\/em><\/strong> newsletter and we&#8217;ll do the heavy lifting to find the best low-risk buying opportunities in this challenging stock market (just as we\u00a0did\u00a0for subscribers who bought $GLD\u00a0<em>before<\/em>\u00a0the strength in gold started to become obvious).<\/p>\n<p><em>What do you think about the state of the market lately? Share your thoughts with the world by dropping us a comment below.<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"cfmonitor\" style=\"padding-top: 30px;\"><center><script src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\" async=\"\"><\/script><!-- Footer of content - Large --> <ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 336px; height: 280px;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7565144363001883\" data-ad-slot=\"6017996961\"><\/ins><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/center><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On February 4, I walked through a few charts that showed why it was time to buy Gold ETFs (or any other form\u00a0of gold). In the four trading days since that previous blog post, SPDR Gold Trust ($GLD), a popular ETF proxy for the spot gold commodity, has cruised 4% higher. The\u00a0S&amp;P 500 and NASDAQ [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-trading-strategy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4416"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4416\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11276,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4416\/revisions\/11276"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}