{"id":9712,"date":"2022-01-12T15:46:12","date_gmt":"2022-01-12T20:46:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/?p=9712"},"modified":"2022-04-06T15:04:53","modified_gmt":"2022-04-06T19:04:53","slug":"nasdaq-bear-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/nasdaq-bear-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the Nasdaq Fall Further? What May Be Next for $QQQ"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/~rick\/\/charts\/2021\/QQQ-trend.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/~rick\/\/charts\/2021\/QQQ-trend.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"300\" title=\"\"><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">TABLE OF CONTENTS<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/nasdaq-bear-2022\/#After_scoring_a_year_of_big_gains_in_2021_the_Nasdaq_100_Index_entered_the_new_year_in_bearish_fashion_Will_the_Nasdaq_extend_its_current_3_year-to-date_loss_OR_is_the_worst_behind_us\" >After scoring a year of big gains in 2021, the Nasdaq 100 Index entered the new year in bearish fashion. Will the Nasdaq extend its current 3% year-to-date loss OR is the worst behind us?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/nasdaq-bear-2022\/#A_sudden_change_of_trend\" >A sudden change of trend<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/nasdaq-bear-2022\/#How_moving_averages_help_gauge_the_strength_of_a_trend\" >How moving averages help gauge the strength of a trend<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/nasdaq-bear-2022\/#QQQ_Where_is_the_Nasdaq_100_ETF_headed_next\" >$QQQ: Where is the Nasdaq 100 ETF headed next?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"After_scoring_a_year_of_big_gains_in_2021_the_Nasdaq_100_Index_entered_the_new_year_in_bearish_fashion_Will_the_Nasdaq_extend_its_current_3_year-to-date_loss_OR_is_the_worst_behind_us\"><\/span>After scoring a year of big gains in 2021, the Nasdaq 100 Index entered the new year in bearish fashion. Will the Nasdaq extend its current 3% year-to-date loss OR is the worst behind us?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In this post, we share with you our simple trend analysis, including key support and resistance levels, that may hint at the Nasdaq&#8217;s next potential move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Continue reading<\/em> and you will also discover how to benefit from a simple way to gauge the trend strength of <em>any<\/em> stock or index in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_sudden_change_of_trend\"><\/span>A sudden change of trend<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Until recently, price action in the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF ($QQQ) was volatile, choppy, and indecisive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over a two-month period starting in early November 2021, $QQQ tried several times to break out above its all-time high from November 6&#8211;but failed each time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As is frequently the case, the 50-day moving average initially provided support after the bearish reversals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, $QQQ finally crashed through support of its 50-day MA in <em>ugly<\/em> fashion on January 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The breakdown below the 50-day MA on higher volume caused $QQQ to lose its uptrend status.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bearish price action also triggered a &#8220;Sell&#8221; signal in <em><a href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Wagner Daily<\/a><\/em> stock portfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 ETF may also be vulnerable to further selling if the big support level around $380 fails to hold from here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the annotated chart below for further analysis:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/~rick\/\/charts\/2021\/220112QQQBLOG4.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/~rick\/\/charts\/2021\/220112QQQBLOG4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"554\" title=\"\"><\/a><figcaption><em>Press image to view full-sized chart<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Above, note the momentum is starting to build to the downside, with the 20-day exponential moving average turning down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>$QQQ has also crossed below its 50-day MA, which has flattened out.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is also a lower high and lower low in place, which was confirmed by the recent selloff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_moving_averages_help_gauge_the_strength_of_a_trend\"><\/span>How moving averages help gauge the strength of a trend<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We mentioned above that $QQQ lost its uptrend status after breaking below the 50-day moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We use moving averages as a simple, but highly effective way to gauge the strength of a trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Here&#8217;s how it works<\/strong>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the price of a stock or index is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Trending <em>above<\/em> the 10-day MA, the trend is <em>extremely<\/em> strong.  <\/li><li>Trending <em>above<\/em> the 20-day EMA, the trend is still strong. <\/li><li>Trending <em>below<\/em> the 20-day EMA, but <em>above<\/em> the 50-day MA, the price is still in an uptrend&#8211;<em>but<\/em> the short-term is likely more sideways.  <\/li><li>Trending <em>below<\/em> the 50-day MA, the price is no longer in an uptrend <em>and<\/em> is vulnerable to further selling.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"QQQ_Where_is_the_Nasdaq_100_ETF_headed_next\"><\/span>$QQQ: Where is the Nasdaq 100 ETF headed next?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The January 10 bullish reversal back above the prior support level is known as an <strong>undercut and rally-<\/strong>-which often leads to a sharp reversal.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bullish reversal that followed the <em>undercut and rally pattern<\/em> sets the stage for an <strong>interesting battle in the coming days.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the price of $QQQ is closing in on the 50% and 61.8% <a href=\"https:\/\/new.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/fibonacci-for-swing-trading\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Fibonacci<\/a> retracement levels (measured from the last swing high to swing low).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A stall at the 50% Fiboancci retracement level would suggest the bears remain in control<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This would increase the odds of the price setting a new low&#8211;or at the very least, testing the swing low.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A bounce to the 61.8% Fibonacci level and declining 20-day EMA could also lead to a new low or test of the swing low.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, if the price is able to push through the 50-day MA and hold for a day or two, then a tradeable bottom may be developing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this case, we might expect the price to chop around for some time, rather than setting a new low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As always, <strong>our<\/strong> <strong>analysis is simply a guide<\/strong> based on <em>twenty years<\/em> of experience swing trading and providing <a href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">winning stock picks<\/a> to members.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have been around long enough to know that <em>anything can happen<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s why we rely on experience, but <em>never<\/em> make predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember to always <strong>trade what you see, not what you think!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Start now<\/a> <\/strong>with your Wagner Daily membership to tip the odds of stock trading success in your favor with a proven swing trading strategy since 2002.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After scoring a year of big gains in 2021, the Nasdaq 100 Index entered the new year in bearish fashion. Will the Nasdaq extend its current 3% year-to-date loss OR is the worst behind us? In this post, we share with you our simple trend analysis, including key support and resistance levels, that may hint [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-trading-strategy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9712","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9712"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9712\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9770,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9712\/revisions\/9770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9712"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9712"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9712"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}