A Bounce For The Bears?


Stocks posted solid gains on Monday but on mixed trade. In a whipsaw session stocks began the day higher but sold off until 10:30 at which time the market caught a bid, steadily climbed until noon, reversed again and sold off until 2:00pm and then rallied sharply into the close. All five major indices closed near session highs. There was a noticeable divergence between the Nasdaq and the other major indices however. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the charge as it posted a strong 2.5% advance while the S&P 500 tacked on 2.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 improved by 2.0% and the S&P MidCap 400 tacked on 1.9%. The Nasdaq was the day’s laggard as it added a more modest 1.3%.

Market internals were mixed for a second consecutive session. Volume plummeted by 26.1% on the NYSE but closed fractionally higher on the Nasdaq. Advancing volume topped declining volume by a margin of 8.8 to 1 on the NYSE and by 2.3 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Given the poor volume, we would not classify yesterday as an accumulation day for either the NYSE or the Nasdaq.

The PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETF (DTO) has shown excellent relative strength to the broad market. Over the past two months DTO easily held support of both the 50-day and 20-day moving averages prior to its breakout move last week. Further, DTO is one of only a few inverse ETFs that moved above its August swing high during last week’s breakout. A pull-back to the ascending 20-day EMA could provide a buying in this ETF.

Yesterday, on lighter volume, the S&P Select Industrial Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) rallied to fill the gap formed on September 22nd. XLI is now very close to major resistance at its 20-day EMA, 50-day MA and September 16th swing high. A move back into this zone of resistance could provide a short entry trigger for this ETF.

Via an intraday alert we entered a small position in the ProShares UltraShort Real Estate ETF (SRS) as it bounced after holding support at the 200-period MA on the 60-minute chart. We took small size and placed a tight stop since we considered this an aggressive entry. Trade details are available to our clients in the watchlist segment of the newsletter.

The market reversed sharply yesterday but in the absence of significant volume it is difficult to view the move as more than just a bounce in the wake of a week of viscous selling. We remain focused on identifying short setups into any bounces the market provides.

In order for the market to stabilize and set up the next rally it is likely that we need a capitulation day of 4-5% across all major indices. Typically capitulation involves a massive spike in volume, 800-1000 stocks down four percent or more, 90% down volume, 90% of stocks down on the day and relentless selling into the close. The capitulation day should then be followed by a massive reversal day which catches market bulls off guard. Typically, only with this type of price action, can a bottom be put in the market.

Today’s Watchlist:

There are no new setups for today. We will send an Intraday Alert if any new trades are made.

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

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  • Per intraday alert, bought a small sized position in SRS on a pullback to 20-period EMA on the hourly chart.
  • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader