market timing model: BUY

Current signal generated on close of November 13.

Portfolio exposure can be anywhere from 75 to 100% long. If positions are holding up well, then one can add exposure beyond 100%.

Past signals:

• Neutral signal generated on close of November 6.
• Buy signal generated on close of September 9
• Neutral signal generated on close of August 15
• Buy signal generated on close of July 11
• Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
• Sell signal generated on close of June 24

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today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

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closed positions:

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ETF position notes:

• $PGJ buy entry triggered over the 5-minute high.

stock position notes:

• Note the new entry price on $SYNA.

ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:

This week’s holiday schedule:

• Tuesday Dec. 24 – Market will close early at 1 pm EST
• Wednesday Dec. 25 – Market is closed (no newsletter or webinar on that day).
• Thursday Dec.26 & Friday Dec. 27 – An abbreviated version of the Wagner Daily will be published. There will be no (or very light) commentary, but we will update the watchlist, open, and closed position sections.Happy Holidays!

The stock market continues to follow through on last week’s sharp rally off the swing lows, with all major averages at new highs for the year and well above the 20-period EMA on the hourly chart.

Leading stocks continue to act well. Some are breaking out to new highs like $FB, while others are trying to hold on to key support levels, such as $SLCA.

Yesterday, PowerShares Golden Dragon China ($PGJ) triggered a buy entry for us when it cleared the downtrend line on the daily chart below.

With yesterday’s advance, $PGJ is now back above the 50-day MA. We should eventually see the 20-day EMA cross through the 50-day EMA and begin to separate.

Prior to breaking the downtrend line, $PGJ had formed two higher lows within the base, which is what we typically look for in most consolidation patterns. Volume was also quite bullish, as it dried up considerably in late November. We look for the price action to push higher and eventually break out to new 52-week highs.

After a strong summer rally, First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy ($FAN) has spent the past two months in pullback mode, correcting 10% off the 52-week high. The consolidation broke below the 10-week MA a few weeks ago, but the break was on light volume.

$FAN has cleared the downtrend line of the consolidation, but still has to climb above the 10-week MA. There is some resistance just above the 10-week MA, around the $11.10 – $11.20 area, so the price action may have to consolidate for a few weeks around this level before moving higher.

$FAN is not actionable right now, as we are waiting for low-risk entry point to develop.

On the stock side, we added $QUNR to the buy watchlist.

$QUNR is a recent IPO that has been consolidating in the $25 – $30 range the past few weeks. We are looking for an early entry, just below the downtrend line of the consolidation.

The entry in $QUNR is just above a tight consolidation on the hourly chart. The volume has dried up over the past few weeks, which is a bullish sign. Volume is pretty light now, but could easily jump to 800,000 shares a day or more when the price gets going.