--> Gold Explorers ETF consolidating after sharp weekly breakout ($GLDX)

Gold Explorers ETF consolidating after sharp weekly breakout ($GLDX)

market timing model: BUY

Current signal generated on close of Feb. 13.

Portfolio exposure can be anywhere from 50% to 100% long (or more), depending on how open positions have held up.

Past signals:

    • Sell signal generated on close of February 3.
    • Neutral signal generated on close of January 24.
    • Buy signal generated on close of November 13
    • Buy signal generated on close of September 9
    • Neutral signal generated on close of August 15
    • Buy signal generated on close of July 11
    • Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
    • Sell signal generated on close of June 24

(click here for more details) 

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

$todays watchlist
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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

$todays watchlist
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closed positions:

open position summary
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ETF position notes:

  • $URA buy stop triggered.

stock position notes:

  • $XOOM buy stop triggered.


ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:

After an ugly two-day shakeout, the market gapped up significantly higher on the open and never looked back, closing with impressive gains in all major averages. Small cap stocks led the way with a 2.7% gain in the Russell 2000. The remaining averages closed in the +1.4 to +1.8% range.

Turnover increased on both exchanges, producing a solid day of accumulation in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

Tuesday’s bullish gap up reversal ran over all short sellers on the open. Shorting in a bull market is tough, but trying to pick a top in a broad market average that is in trend mode is extremely difficult.

Those who are willing to play that game must go through SEVERAL stop outs before hitting a positive trade, assuming they have the patience to make that happen. Most of the time, traders will fail at the first few attempts to short at the highs. The losses begin to add up and eventually produce enough doubt to cause the trader to pass on the next short attempt, which inevitably is the that would have worked.

Eventually a trader becomes sick of the cycle and learns to stop shorting new highs. It is very much the same as learning to accept selling early on the long side, as no one can sell the top consistently. Once a trader begins to realize that shorting a top or selling at the top is unrealistic, a ton of pressure will come off.

Commodities continue to impress, and yesterday we added the Uranium ETF ($URA) to our portfolio on a continuation breakout. We are looking for a move to $22 if the price and volume action remains strong.

We have one new setup on today’s watchlist in ($GLDX), which is the Global X Gold Explorers ETF. $GLDX is consolidating in a tight range above the rising 20-day EMA after breaking out above the 200-day MA on heavy volume. We are looking for $GLDX to resume its uptrend after three to four weeks of sideways action.

$GLDX TIGHT ACTION

The weekly chart below shows the bullish breakout on the weekly chart on big volume. The past two weeks have produced lower volume, while consolidating in a tight range. Also, the 10-week MA has crossed above the 40-week MA, which is a bullish trend reversal signal.

$GLDX WEEKLY BREAKOUT

The monthly chart of $GLDX shows the break of downtrend line and the biggest spike in volume over the past few years during last month’s close above the 10-month moving average.

$GLDX monthly breakout

Trade details can be found in the watchlist section above/

On the stock side, we added one new position in $XOOM, which failed to move out but still has plenty of support in the $27 – $27.50 area.

We have one new setup on today’s watchlist in $CUDA, which is recent IPO from last November with a relative strength ranking of 93. It doesn’t have the fundamentals or liquidity to be an A rated setup, but the pattern looks good and the weekly price and volume action has been bullish.

We are looking for an entry above the two-day high, which would put the action above the 10, 20, and 50-day MAs. If the setup triggers and fails, we may look to exit partial size ahead of the stop.

$CUDA pullabck to 50day ma

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