market timing model: BUY

Signal generated on close of July 7

Bull market rally. Long exposure can be in the 50 – 100% range or more depending on success of open positions.

Note that the market timing model was not created to catch tops and bottoms in the S&P 500. The model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend. Buy signals (confirmed) are generated when the price and volume action of leading stocks and the major averages are in harmony. This means that we could potentially have a buy signal in a major market average, but if leading stocks are not forming bullish patterns, then we are forced to remain on the sidelines until patterns improve.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

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closed positions:

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position notes:

• Note the 5-minute rule will not apply to HBP entry.

Commentary:

Not much to write about in terms of broad market action, as all indices remain in chop mode.

$OLLI reports earnings after the close on Wednesday and we plan to hold through the report. A best case scenario (BCS) would be a gap up above current range highs (that holds) on big volume. A worst case scenario would be a gap down below the 40-week MA. An open at or around the 40-week MA would produce a $300 loss ($200 loss is average), which is acceptable.

We have one new buy setup on today’s watchlist in $HBP, which is a swing trade in a micro cap stock with strong earnings and a valid basing pattern. Click here for a quick primer on basing patterns.

$HBP closed above the downtrend line on a pick up in volume, so we are looking for an entry above Tuesday’s high. The position size is small due to the wide stop below the 50-day MA. Please note that we are waiving the 5-minute rule due to Tuesday’s strong close.

Self-Serve Watchlist:

This is an unofficial watchlist of potential setups for today’s session (trade results will not be monitored). This list is for experienced traders only who are looking for a few ideas. No targets will be listed. Please check for earnings before entering.

All stops are on a closing basis unless listed as a “hard” stop.