market timing model:

Buy
– Signal generated on the close of April 30

We are now in confirmed buy mode, which means that we can go on margin if needed.

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today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based a $100,000 model portfolio. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

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closed positions:

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ETF position notes:

• No trades were made.

stock position notes:

• No trades were made. Note the new split stop in $UA.

ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:

For the second day in a row, stocks failed to make any progress and retreated off the highs of the day in the afternoon. Although all broad market averages closed in positive territory, Tuesday’s stalling action was on higher volume, indicating that some institutions were selling into strength. Yes we are overbought, and the market could pull back in at any time. However, until market conditions change, we would view any correction as a buying opportunity.

All major averages continue to hold above their steep, short-term uptrend lines. The daily chart of the S&P 500 shows the price action in a srong uptrend, especially since breaking above 1,600. A break of the uptrend line could lead to a test of the 10-day MA, which is currently around 1,650.

The uptrend line is a bit longer in the S&P, as the line created by the first two anchor points (4/18 and 5/1) has held up the entire rally. There is a shorter uptrend line in place on the Nasdaq because the price action could not hold above the first line drawn (which was quite steep).

If the uptrend line breaks on the Nasdaq, expect support to come in around the 10-day MA, which is currently trading at 3,460.

As long as these trend lines hold, we can expect the market to continue its advance with little no rest. A break of the uptrend line in a strong market doesn’t mean that a big reversal is coming, it could simply indicate that the price action may need a week or two of sideways consolidation before the uptrend resumes.

Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF ($GRK) popped up on our weekly volume scan this weekend, as it shot to new 52-week highs on huge volume. Because $GREK has run up straight off the lows, we expect the price action to base out for a few weeks around the $19 – $22 area before heading higher. As we have mentioned in past reports, a big volume spike that is accompanied by a strong advance is usually a very bullish sign.

We look for $GREK to hold above the 20-day EMA over the next we few weeks, as resistance from the prior swing high at $20 should now act as support.

$NOW put in a bullish reversal candle on Tuesday after undercutting the 20-day EMA. A move above 40.50 could also serve as a secondary entry point for those who missed the first buy a few days ago. If you decide to buy at 40.50, please use the stop listed for $NOW in the open positions section.