market timing model: BUY

Current signal generated on close of Feb. 13.

Portfolio exposure can be anywhere from 50% to 100% long (or more), depending on how open positions have held up.

Past signals:

• Sell signal generated on close of February 3.
• Neutral signal generated on close of January 24.
• Buy signal generated on close of November 13
• Buy signal generated on close of September 9
• Neutral signal generated on close of August 15
• Buy signal generated on close of July 11
• Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
• Sell signal generated on close of June 24

 (click here for more details) 

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

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closed positions:

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ETF position notes:

• $PKB, $EWP, and $TAN buy entries triggered.

stock position notes:

• $INVN and $WBAI buy entries triggered. Trailing a tight stop in $WWDAY to lock in gains in case the action reverses ahead of next week’s earnings report.

ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:

Stocks rallied across the board on Friday, closing out a strong week of price action in the major averages and leadership stocks.

The Nasdaq 100 is providing clear leadership, as it has already moved to new highs while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are sitting at resistance from prior highs. If these averages can soon join the Nadsaq 100, then the market could be ready to move higher for the next several weeks.

iShares Transportation ETF ($IYT) has seen quite the pick up in volume the past few weeks, but is still sitting at the 10-week moving average.

If $IYT can continue to hold above $128, then odds should favor a move to new highs within a short period of time. If the action can’t hold above $128, then we could see a longer-term consolidation develop, such as a potential double bottom with a test or undercut of $126.

We remain long iPath Coffee ($JO) from our entry on Feb. 12 over the two-day high. Although the price action has yet to move to a new swing high, it has formed a tight trading range above support from the rising 10-day MA.

The recent move through the 200-day MA was quite explosive, and should lead to further upside once the current consolidation is through. For those who missed the original entry, a move above the 2/17 high is a secondary entry point, as we look for the price action to hold the rising 10-day MA and eventually push higher.

iShares Sweden has been consolidating in a tight range on the monthly chart over the past year. The past six months have been very tight, with the action hovering around the monthly downtrend line while holding above the 10-month MA.

Although $EWD looks great on the monthly chart, it still needs to breakout in order to generate a buy entry. We do not mind entering stocks or ETFs prior to a breakout during a shorter-term, two to four month consolidation pattern on a daily or weekly chart. Buying prior to the breakout on longer-term consolidations (especially ones a year long) can be risky, as the ETF may take too long to break out or not break out at all.

On the stock side, $INVN and $WBAI buy entries triggered. If $RSOL does not trigger within the next 2-3 days, then we will pass on the setup as it will not have much time to extend beyond our entry point before $SCTY reports earnings on 2/24.

We have one new (swing) buy setup today in $KOOL (this is the blast off setup). After an explosive move off lows early in the year, $KOOL has pulled back on declining volume. The entry point is over the 2-day high, with a GONG stop, which means go or no go. If $KOOL doesn’t take off right away, then it may need another shakeout below $2 before going higher.

$KOOL and $RSOL are both swing setups…they are not A rated cores.