Potential pullback entry in (ECH)


In Monday’s action, the major indices posted mixed results on lackluster volume. The Dow reversed its short lived leadership role from last Thursday, as it was the only index to lose ground on the session. The small-cap Russell 2000 was the only index to show an appreciable gain, by finishing the day up 0.4%. The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the S&P MidCap 400 all finished just above the flat line yesterday. Each managed a barely significant 0.1% improvement for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% in Monday’s trading.

As has been common lately, market internals were unimpressive on Monday. Turnover was decidedly down on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Volume plummeted by 24% on the NYSE and 14% on the Nasdaq. Advancing volume fared only slightly better than declining volume on both major indices. On the NYSE, up volume outpaced down volume by a ratio of 1.3 to 1. The ratio was slightly better among technology stocks, as the advancing to declining volume ratio finished the day at a positive 1.5 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Based on market internals, institutional involvement has been clearly absent from the market over the past two weeks.

We sent an alert on Monday stating that we sold our long position in XOP at the market. We made a judgment call to sell all of XOP due to the lack of a strong market, and our relatively high exposure to oil /oil related sectors. We exited the trade and locked in a nice gain of approximately $1,000. Further, this move frees up buying power to take advantage of potential short exposure in the event of a market correction.

The iShares MSCI Chile Investable Market Index ETF (ECH), has been under selling pressure for the past several trading sessions. Yesterday, it tested its 50-day MA for the first time since mid November. Given the price and volume action, ECH may be poised as a possible long entry. The setup we are looking for is an undercut of support at the 50-day MA followed by a quick reversal back above this key mark. The undercut serves to sweep poorly placed stops, scare the weak hands out of the market and lure bears into the market. Under this scenario, if a reversal back above the 50-day MA occurs, it is often accompanied by a short squeeze. This technical pattern has been quite common since the broad market rally began in March, 2009.

Since a false breakout on December 7th, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), has been consolidating in a tight range. Further, the consolidation has been accompanied by light volume, which is generally considered bullish. A volume assisted move back above the December 23rd high of $48.56, provides a potential long trigger for this ETF. This is another setup that has been quite common over the past 18 months (false breakout… consolidation…breakout). We like this technical pattern and will be monitoring it closely as a possible long entry.

Although December began with a powerful rally, there has been little follow through as we near the end of 2010. As is common with the holiday season, trade has been light, and price action muted. Although the week before New Year’s is generally uneventful, we remain alert for trading opportunities and the potential for a market reversal.

Today’s Watchlist:

There are no new official setups for today. As always, we will send an Intraday Alert if any new trades are made.

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

    position summary

    Having trouble seeing the position summary graphic above?
    Click here to view it directly on your Internet browser instead.


  • Per intraday alert, sold XOP to lock in a $1,000 gain.
  • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
  • For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.

    Have you had your free 1-month trial to Morpheus Trading Group’s additional ETF and stock trading newsletters?

      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader