market timing model: BUY

Current signal generated on close of July 11

Past signals:

• Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
• Sell signal generated on close of June 24

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today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based a $100,000 model portfolio. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

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closed positions:

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ETF position notes:

• No trades were made.

stock position notes:

• $BEAT buy entry triggered.

ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:

Much like the past two to three days, the broad market averages basically chopped around all day and closed with modest gains across the board. The market has been overbought for quite some time, so a week or two of rest would be welcome, especially if it produces new buy setups.

Per yesterday’s commentary, there hasn’t been a whole lot to do on the ETF side the past few days due to the dry up in setups from our scans. Most open ETF positions are either a bit too extended to add to the position, or have just broken out and need more time to confirm the breakout. However, we are stalking the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Index ($TAN) for a potential pullback entry if it can touch the rising 10-day MA or short-term uptrend line on the daily chart below:

 

A pullback to the 26.00 – 26.50 area would be ideal, allowing the 10-day MA (currently at 25.67) to catch up and provide additional support at the uptrend line. Last week’s high was 25.94, and last month’s high was 25.96, so there should be quite a bit of support around $26.

$TAN’s volume this week is quite strong, so the odds favor the price action closing near the highs of the week, so we could see a pullback devleop next week to the aforementioned support level.

On the stock side, we added $BEAT to the portfolio above the prior day’s reversal candle high. After a decent opening hour, the price action slid lower the rest of the day. If Wednesday’s low is unable to hold, then we could see a quick test of Tuesday’s low.

$AMBA followed through to the upside yesterday, printing a 9% gain on a 100% increase in volume. There is a trendine at the top of the channel which could cause $AMBA to stall out around $20, but if the price action can hold this level and eventually break through, then we could see a very strong rally develop.

We have two new buy setups on today’s watchlist. The first setup is a downtrend line breakout in Taminco Corp ($TAM). $TAM IPO’d back in April, so it is only a few months old. We like the tight price action on the daily chart, which has led to thee bars in a row of near inside weeks on the weekly chart. The action is tight! Our buy entry is over the two-day high, with a stop beneath the recent swing low. $TAM is not an A rated stock, so we are looking for a one to three week move to produce a 15-30% gain. The 10-day MA will be our “line in the sand” (exit) once the trade has had some time to extend in price (if it does).

 

The next setup is a small add in 3D Systems ($DDD). We already have a small position in $DDD, but would like to add more on a break above the hourly downtrend line and yesterday’s high. If this entry triggers, then we would like to see the price action follow through right away. Our stop is about 5% away, but with earnings at the end of the month, we would like to have a little bit of a profit buffer to hold through earnings.