Pullback entry in (UUP)


Stocks rallied for a third consecutive day on Tuesday on strong trade. All five major indices posted solid gains and closed near session highs. The S&P MidCap 400 and the small-cap Russell 2000 led the move as they posted gains of 1.1% and 1.5% respectively. The Nasdaq tacked on just over 1% while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average improved by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively.

Market internals were bullish on Tuesday. Volume increased by 23.3% on the Nasdaq and by 8.3% on the Big Board. Further, advancing volume topped declining volume by almost 4 to 1 on both major indices. The 4 to 1 spread ratio marked the highest reading for this technical indicator on the Nasdaq since April 20th and on the NYSE since March 17th. Yesterday’s action clearly involved institutional money and would be considered an accumulation day for the broad market. We will be watching carefully for a follow through day on Wednesday.

The PowerShares Dynamic Large Cap Value ETF (PWV) hit its trigger yesterday and we entered the trade. Our long position in SLV continued to perform well but could find resistance at the 50-day MA ($38.15 range). We wouldn’t be surprised to see consolidation or a minor pullback in SLV near this level.

Over the past three sessions while the broad market has moved to higher ground, the iPath Dow Jones AIG Copper ETF (JJC) has remained trapped in a four day trading range. Further, while the S&P 500 easily held support between the 20 and 50 day moving averages, JJC has struggled at its 200-day MA. A rally back into resistance near its 20-day EMA could provide a quality short entry trigger for this ETF. Alternatively, a drop below the two day low of $52.65 could also present a shorting opportunity in JJC. We are monitoring JJC closely as it is a potentially promising short setup.

The PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull ETF (UUP) is showing all of the signs that a bullish reversal may be underway. With commodities and currencies, volume tends to be a more proximate and reliable indicator of a reversal than with stocks or other ETFs in general. A quick look at the weekly chart of UUP demonstrates this clearly. Notice that over the past two years every significant reversal off the lows in UUP has occurred within several weeks of a major spike in volume. A review of the daily chart of UUP suggests that a pullback into the 20-day EMA could provide a long entry trigger for this ETF. A morning gap down into support followed by a move back above the five minute high could present an ideal long entry point for UUP.

Over the past three sessions the market has been moving higher but an abundance of quality long setups have been noticeably absent from our nightly scans. This may in large part be due to sector rotation but is also common during the final stages of an extended rally. Yesterday’s price action and internals were bullish and the major indices appear to be setting up for a move higher. Nonetheless, we remain cautiously positive as we believe the market would benefit greatly from several weeks of consolidation before possibly moving to higher ground.

Today’s Watchlist:

There are no new official setups for today. As always, we will send an Intraday Alert if any new trades are made.

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

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  • PWV buy entry triggered.

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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader