market timing model: BUY Signal generated on close of July 7

Bull market rally. Long exposure can be in the 50 – 100% range or more depending on success of open positions.

Note that the market timing model was not created to catch tops and bottoms in the S&P 500. The model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend. Buy signals (confirmed) are generated when the price and volume action of leading stocks and the major averages are in harmony. This means that we could potentially have a buy signal in a major market average, but if leading stocks are not forming bullish patterns, then we are forced to remain on the sidelines until patterns improve.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

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closed positions:

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position notes:

• Canceled the $MTSI order for now.

Commentary:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gapped higher but failed to follow and closed with minimal gains. The small cap Russell 2000 held up best, closing with a +0.7% gain.

No setups triggered on Tuesday, but we have two new buy setups on today’s watchlist, along with $OLLI, which has been changed from a buy limit to a buy stop order. Note that the $MTSI order has been canceled for now.

With $RP and $OLLI, we are simply making a small add to existing positions as they attempt to breakout.

$RP closed with a 1.7% gain on heavier than average volume, so we are looking to enter on the open using a buy limit order to protect us from a big gap up.

After a strong move off the 50-day MA and breakout above $12, $MIME has been consolidating in a tight range, allowing the 10-day MA to catch up. The chart below is a weekly, showing the price trading within last week’s tight range, which followed the explosive breakout.

A move above last week’s high is the trigger. We are waiving the 5-minute rule due to the strength of Tuesday’s close above the 10-day MA on volume. The stop is placed beneath last week’s low, but we will sell partial to full size if the setup triggers and then closes back below the 10-day MA on volume.

Just a reminder, an updated version of the relative strength watchlist is available for download in the members area of our site. The list is in excel and has about 40 or so stocks with EPS and RS rankings. The list is not a buy recommendation, but just an idea of what we are looking at this week based on weekend scans.

Self-Serve Watchlist:

This is an unofficial watchlist of potential setups for today’s session (trade results will not be monitored). This list is for experienced traders only who are looking for a few ideas. No targets will be listed. Please check for earnings before entering.

All stops are on a closing basis unless listed as a “hard” stop.