market timing model: BUY

Signal generated on close of July 7

Bull market rally. Long exposure can be in the 50 – 100% range or more depending on success of open positions.

Note that the market timing model was not created to catch tops and bottoms in the S&P 500. The model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend. Buy signals (confirmed) are generated when the price and volume action of leading stocks and the major averages are in harmony. This means that we could potentially have a buy signal in a major market average, but if leading stocks are not forming bullish patterns, then we are forced to remain on the sidelines until patterns improve.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

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closed positions:

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position notes:

• $BABA and $PYPL buy entries triggered.

Commentary:

For the second day in a row, broad market indices recovered from morning weakness to close well off the lows of the session. The Russell 2000, S&P 400, and Nasdaq 100 all closed above the 20-day EMA. The S&P 500 is already below the 20-day EMA, but did manage to hold $216 and close back above $217.

With the market in chop mode, it is still vulnerable to selling, but we would expect any potential pullback to be short-lived given the support from the rising 50-day MAs.

Biotech ETF $IBB has pulled back into the rising 50-day MA, which is a critical area of support in an uptrend. The 200-day MA is just above as well. A clear break of the 50-day MA with follow through could put some pressure on the Nasdaq. Ideally, we’d like to see $IBB hold above $270 for a few weeks and then eventually push higher.

$BABA and $PYPL buy entries triggered on Thursday. $BABA is an entry on strength, looking for immediate follow through next week. The $PYPL entry is off the lows of the base at support from the 200-day MA, so we will have to be patient with the price action.

There are no new setups for today, but $RSYS remains on the watchlist. Please note that $RSYS is no longer a split stop.

Please note all the hard stops in the open positions section. Cells highlighted in red indicate a hard stop, which means the position is sold right away when the stop triggers. All other stops are on a closing basis, and are sold the following day after closing below a stop.

US Markets will be closed on Monday, Sept. 5. The Wagner Daily will either be delivered Sunday night or Monday morning by 12 pm ET. Have a Happy and Safe Holiday Weekend!

Self-Serve Watchlist:

This is an unofficial watchlist of potential setups for today’s session (trade results will not be monitored). This list is for experienced traders only who are looking for a few ideas. No targets will be listed. Please check for earnings before entering.

All stops are on a closing basis unless listed as a “hard” stop.