market timing model:

Buy Mode
– Timing model generated buy signal on close of March 5 (click here for more details)

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on two separate $50,000 model portfolios (one for ETFs and one for stocks). Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

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closed positions:

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ETF position notes:

• No trades were made.

stock position notes:

• No trades were made.

ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:

Stocks closed higher across the board but the pecent gains were modest at 0.3% on average. Turnover declined on both exchanges, but the light volume on the Nasdaq was typical for a tight-ranged, inside day. As mentioned yesterday, the Nasdaq continues to trade in a tight range on the hourly chart since 12 pm on March 5.

With most stocks and ETFs running higher while the timing model was on a sell signal, there are very few low-risk buy setups to be found. However, if the market is to stage a significant rally we will eventually see new breakouts emerge and fomer breakouts pullback to support, as a strong market should have decent rotation among leadership groups.

The key here is to maintain discipline and let the patterns come to us. $SPDR KBW Regional Banking ($KRE) has recently moved to new highs after a three-week pullback to support of the 10-week moving average on the weekly chart. The monthly chart below shows $KRE attempting to clear the highs of a three year trading range.

On the daily chart below, we see the price action during the pullback holding support of the prior breakout level, which is always bullish action. A close above 31.00 on the weekly chart with a pick up in volume would serve as the buy signal. The stop would be placed beneath the recent swing low and the 50-day moving average.

On the stock side, we have one new buy setup on the watchlist but we are monitoring several candidates for entry points next week. $ACAD looks like it could run above the three-day high but it reports earnings next week so we are staying away. $CVI may develop into a pullback setup over the next few days (this setup is not official).

The recent false breakout in $ARMH is worth monitoring, as we could see a low-risk entry point emerge within the next 3-5 days, provided that the pullback does not lead to a breakdown below the 50-day MA (this setup is not official).

$BX is our only official setup today. We like the tightening up of the price action over the past few weeks. $BX has a solid but not spectacular relative stength ranking of 89 and its industry group ranking is 17 out of 200, so its group strength is great. We are looking for a 15-20% move out from the entry point as the target.

relative strength combo watchlist:

Our Relative Strength Combo Watchlist makes it easy for subscribers to import data into their own scanning software, such as Tradestation, Interactive Brokers, and TC2000. This list is comprised of the strongest stocks (technically and fundamentally) in the market over the past six to 12 months. The scan is updated every Sunday, and this week’s RS Combo Watchlist can be downloaded by logging in to the Members Area of our web site.