The Certainty of Uncertainty


Stocks fell for a third consecutive day yesterday as volume rose. All five major indices ended the session modestly lower but near the lows of the session. The Nasdaq struggled the most as it shed over 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the small-cap Russell 2000 both slid 0.5%. The S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P 500 both dropped 0.4%.

For a second consecutive day internals were negative. Volume was up by 13.6% on the Nasdaq and by 11.6% on the NYSE. Once again declining volume controlled the day’s action as it outpaced advancing volume by a ratio of 2.1 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.9 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The increase in volume across both exchanges points to institutional participation in the decline. We would classify yesterday as both a distribution day and a follow through day on Wall Street.

Yesterday, via intraday alert we entered a position in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). After gapping down in the morning SLV undercut support of the 20-day MA and rallied back into the four day trading range to form a bullish reversal candle. Further, this move occurred on increasing volume. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the open positions segment of the newsletter.

Yesterday, on a big spike in volume, EWJ formed a distinct reversal candle as it overcut the 200-day MA but eventually reversed to close near session lows. A move back below yesterday’s low of $10.47 could provide a shorting opportunity in this ETF.

The market continued its pattern of indecision yesterday as it made last week’s advance seem like a distant memory. However, if we take a step back from the price action it is clear that we are coming into support of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages on the major indices. The next two sessions of trading are likely to provide the clues as to the internal strength of the market.

Today’s Watchlist:

There are no new setups for today. We will send an Intraday Alert if any new trades are made.

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

    position summary

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  • Per intraday alert, re-entered SLV with a stop below the prior day’s low.
  • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
  • For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.

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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader