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The Wagner Daily


Commentary:

A tame reaction to yesterday’s Federal Reserve Board meeting enabled the S&P 500 to post its sixth straight day of gains and once again finish at a new five and a half year high. Just as everyone on Wall Street expected, interest rates were left unchanged. As usual, stocks acted neurotically immediately following the FOMC announcement, but they stabilized and closed in positive territory. The S&P 500 and S&P Midcap 400 indices both gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 perked up, rallying 0.6%, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged with a 0.1% gain. Each of the major indices finished in the upper 20% of their intraday ranges.

Turnover rose across the board yesterday, enabling both the S&P and Nasdaq to register bullish “accumulation days.” In the NYSE, total volume increased by 8%, while volume in the Nasdaq was 10% higher than the previous day’s level. After registering a bearish “distribution day” in the previous session, it’s positive that the Nasdaq was able to follow up with a session of institutional accumulation. Overall volume levels were healthy as well, as volume in the NYSE was at its highest level since October 4. In both exchanges, advancing volume exceeded declining volume by ratio of just under 2 to 1.

Beneath the relatively modest percentage gains of the major indices, several industry sectors surged higher yesterday. As anticipated, gold stocks began following through on spot gold’s inverse “head and shoulders” pattern that we analyzed in yesterday’s The Wagner Daily. The CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) vaulted 3.5% higher, causing the first half of our long entry in the StreetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD) to trigger. We bought half of our GLD position on the breakout above the 20-day moving average, and will buy the remainder of the shares on a breakout above the October 19 high. Such a rally would confirm the bullish inverse “head and shoulders” chart pattern, as the “neckline” would be broken. More importantly, the five-month downtrend line, as well as the 50 and 200-day moving averages, would also be broken. We really liked the action in gold sector yesterday and feel pretty confident the gold stocks and ETFs will continue higher in the short to intermediate-term.

In addition to GLD, which trades at roughly one-tenth the price of the spot gold commodity, there are a few other related ETFs that you may not be aware of. The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is a competitor of GLD and has a nearly identical chart pattern. The only difference is that GLD trades a lot higher average daily volume. On a slightly different note, don’t forget about the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which trades at about ten times the price of one ounce of the spot silver commodity. Less people pay attention to silver, but the reality is that SLV showed more relative strength than GLD during the recent correction.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) is a relatively new ETF composed of individual gold mining stocks, as opposed to merely being tied to the price of spot gold. Looking at the chart of GDX below, notice how it has a similar inverse “head and shoulders” pattern as GLD, but is already breaking out above its “neckline.” It also closed yesterday above its 50-day MA for the first time since September 9:

GDX has less price history than GLD, so its long-term chart pattern is more difficult to define, but we like its relative strength and bullish daily chart pattern. We did not buy GDX in our hedge fund yesterday, but we did take positions in a few individual gold mining stocks, as well as in GLD.

Another impressive performer yesterday was the Oil Service Index ($OSX), which rallied 2.3%. The Oil Service HOLDR (OIH), which we bought when it broke out above its five-month downtrend line, has shown excellent price action by gaining nearly 8 points (just over 6%) in the past two days. Our upside price target is still resistance of the 200-day moving average, which is about 4.5 points above yesterday’s closing price. After such a strong run in a short period of time, OIH may consolidate for a few days, but we would be surprised if it gives back much of the recent gain. A brief consolidation would actually be a good thing because it would enable OIH to build a base of support from which to stage its next breakout. Note that OIH is showing much more relative strength than the U.S. Oil Fund (USO), which is loosely correlated to the price of the crude oil commodity. We would continue to avoid USO, but there are a plethora of other energy-related ETFs that are showing similar strength to OIH. For a complete list of all the energy ETFs, check out the “Sector/Industry” page of the free Morpheus ETF Roundup.

With gold and oil seeing such positive institutional money flow over the past few days, one can surmise that commodities in general are picking up strength. After a five-month correction, they may be ready to once again take off. If you want to have an easy way to capture a general move in the commodities market, check out the DB Commodity Index Trust (DBC). As you can see on the long-term weekly chart below, DBC has “filled its gap” from last month and still has more than a point to go until running into resistance of its primary downtrend line:

As for the broad market, what can we say? The major indices are certainly strong and remain glued to the upper range of their uptrend channels without showing any major signs of correction. Obviously, a price retracement will eventually come, but remember that “overbought” markets can remain that way for a long time. If you’re not presently long the market, there is clearly a high risk for entering near current prices. However, one way to participate in the bullish action without exposing yourself to major risk is to focus on the industry sectors that trade largely independently of the broad market. Gold and Oil Service, both of which we are long, are two great examples of this. A price correction in the S&P, Dow, or Nasdaq will not necessarily affect these sectors because they are commodity-driven. If you’re already long the broad market and are sitting on healthy gains, you might even consider closing some positions into strength and rotating some of that capital into sectors that are less susceptible to the broad-based pullback that will inevitably come.


Today’s Watchlist:

There are no new setups today, as we are near the maximum buying power based on the $50,000 model account.


Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below:

    Open positions (coming into today):

      OIH long (150 shares from October 19 entry) –
      bought 131.65, stop 131.65, target 142.30, unrealized points = + 6.10, unrealized P/L = + $915

      GLD long (200 shares from October 25 entry) –
      bought 58.33, stop 55.41, target 66.10, unrealized points = + 0.43, unrealized P/L = + $86

      IWM short (400 shares from October 24 entry) –
      sold short 75.39, stop 76.78 (see note below), target 72.04, unrealized points = (1.01), unrealized P/L = ($404)

      KCE short (400 shares from October 17 entry) –
      sold short 63.72 (avg.), stop 65.17, target 59.68, unrealized points = (0.55), unrealized P/L = ($220)

    Closed positions (since last report):

      (none)

    Current equity exposure ($100,000 max. buying power):

      $88,682

    Notes:


      Half of the long entry in GLD triggered yesterday. Remember that we have a trigger to add 200 more shares of GLD above 59.77. Stop on the additional shares will initially be 57.70. We also raised the stop on OIH to breakeven and will continue to trail it more, as the price action dictates. Regarding IWM, we are using a modified version of the MTG Opening Gap Rules to manage the position. If IWM trades through our stop price at any time during the first 20 minutes, the stop will be adjusted to be 14 cents above the high of the first 20 minutes.

    Click
    here
    for glossary and explanation of terms used in The Wagner Daily

    Click here to view MTG’s past performance results (updated monthly).

    Edited by Deron Wagner,
    MTG Founder and
    Head Trader

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