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The Wagner Daily


Commentary:

Stocks capped a very strong week on a positive note last Friday, as the market’s winning streak extended to four consecutive sessions of gains. After drifting lower throughout the morning, it initially appeared as though the major indices were headed for a slight correction, but the bulls resumed control in the afternoon, enabling the broad market to finish at its highest level of the week. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and small-cap Russell 2000 each climbed 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P Midcap 400 indices gained 0.4%. Finishing near their intraday highs, all the main stock market indexes advanced approximately 10% for the week.

Turnover eased in both exchanges. Total volume in the NYSE declined 11%, while volume in the Nasdaq was 17% below the previous day’s level. Trading in the NYSE remained above 50-day average levels, but Nasdaq volume slipped below its average pace for just the second time in a month. In both the NYSE and Nasdaq, advancing volume beat declining volume by a modest margin of approximately 3 to 2.

While many ETFs, such as the financials, have merely bounced off their lows, the Internet HOLDR (HHH) is poised to break out above a multi-month band of price consolidation, and is already above both its 20 and 50-day moving averages. It looks good for potential buy entry above the $35 level. Take a look:

Another interesting pattern is forming in Market Vectors Russia (RSX), which our sister service, the ETF Portfolio Tracker already entered last week. The daily chart of RSX is shown below:

Unlike the domestic stock market indexes, notice how RSX has been showing relative strength by holding above its lows from November 2008. On numerous occasions throughout January and February, RSX tried to breakdown through its November 2008 low, but it held firm. Now, RSX has gapped up above resistance of both its 20 and 50-day moving averages. Further, the 20-day exponential moving average is about to cross up through the 50-day moving average, a bullish indicator of intermediate-term trend change. If RSX moves above last week’s high of $13.75, bullish momentum should carry it substantially higher in the short to intermediate-term. A protective stop can be neatly placed just below convergence of the 20 and 50-day moving averages, around $12.

Because last week’s reversal occurred so suddenly and sharply, the main stock market indexes are showing “V bottom” formations. This means the angles of the short-term uptrend lines are roughly the same as the angles of the preceding downtrend lines before the market reversed. This is shown on the daily chart of the Dow DIAMONDS Trust (DIA), a popular ETF proxy for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

As you may have noticed firsthand, trading the V bottom pattern can often be challenging because the rally is often too swift to allow traders to participate in the initial upward move. Although one could just blindly jump in on the buy side at the first sign of strength, such a strategy would have proved to have been quite costly over the past year, as a vast majority of rapid bullish reversals have failed. Therefore, a safer strategy for participating in the current rally, is to wait for the market to prove itself. Specifically, we’re waiting for the first day the major indices close significantly lower, then watching to see if they easily recover those losses, rather than falling apart, as they have done so many times in the past. At that point, when stocks begin heading back up, after a significant pullback, we’ll get the green light to begin more aggressive buying operations.

On an absolute basis, last week’s percentage gains in the broad market were impressive. However, because the stock market had fallen so far, so fast, only the short-term trends changed from bearish to bullish; the intermediate-term trends are still pointing “down.” But if the main stock market indexes pull back, then subsequently rally above the preceding highs, the intermediate-term trends will change as well.


Today’s Watchlist:

There are no new setups in the pre-market, but will promptly send an Intraday Trade Alert if we enter anything new today.


Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices.

    Open positions (coming into today):

      SLV long (400 shares from March 5 entry) – bought 13.14, stop 11.69, target 16.35, unrealized points = (0.09), unrealized P/L = ($36)

      UGA long (175 shares from March 4 entry) – bought 23.41, stop 20.49, target 31.30, unrealized points = (0.34), unrealized P/L = ($60)

      DGP long (300 shares total; 200 from Feb. 26, 100 from March 12) –

      bought 20.67 (avg.), stop 18.32, target new high (will trail stop), unrealized points = (0.43), unrealized P/L = ($129)

    Closed positions (since last report):

      (none)

    Current equity exposure ($100,000 max. buying power):

      $15,329

    Notes:

    • No changes to the open positions above.
    • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
    • For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.

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    Please check out the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide to learn how to get the most from your subscription.

Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader

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