Commentary:
Stocks snapped back from last week’s losses, enabling the Nasdaq to zoom back above its 200-day moving average, but volume dwindled to its slowest pace in weeks. After gapping higher on the open, and subsequently showing early weakness, the main stock market indexes settled into a steady uptrend that persisted throughout the day. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.1%, the S&P 500 3.0%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 advanced 4.0%, as the S&P Midcap 400 motored to a 3.8% gain. All the major indices closed at their intraday highs.
One key ingredient missing from yesterday’s broad-based rally was volume. In both the NYSE and Nasdaq, turnover was 4% lighter than the previous day’s levels. In the Nasdaq, it was the fourth straight day of declining volume, as well as the slowest session of trading in more than a month. Considering the large percentage gains of the major indices, one might have expected an accompanying volume surge as well, but mutual funds, hedge funds, and other institutions remained on the sidelines. Because the stock market entered into correction mode only last week, any rally that occurs on lighter volume must be viewed with a bit of skepticism.
Last week, we discussed several sectors and ETFs with relative strength we were monitoring for potential buy entry if they pulled back to key support levels. One of those was Claymore Global Solar Energy (TAN), which we bought when it came into support of its intermediate-term uptrend line and prior breakout level on May 13. The Oil sector, another industry on our watchlist, gave us an entry point yesterday. Both the Oil Index ($XOI) and Oil Service Index ($OSX) came into support of their 20-day exponential moving averages and multi-month uptrend lines last Friday. Yesterday, the sector indexes responded to their support levels by gaining an average of more than 4%.
Upon scanning the various oil-related ETFs, we noted iShares Oil and Gas (IEO) has been showing the most relative strength of the bunch. As such, we bought IEO yesterday, when it confirmed its pullback to support by subsequently rallying above resistance of its hourly downtrend line. The daily chart below illustrates the pullback to support. The hourly chart that follows shows our entry point on the hourly downtrend line break:
Another ETF on our potential buy watchlist was iPath India Index (INP). After consolidating in a tight range for the past two weeks, above support of its 200-day moving average, INP closed the previous session right at the upper end of its recent range. This caused us to set an alert for potential buy entry yesterday. However, the trade setup became invalidated because a positive response to news of India’s government elections caused INP to gap open more than 25% higher yesterday! This is shown on the daily chart below:
With such a huge, one-day gain, INP could easily require two to five weeks (or more) to build a base of support that enables it to move higher. However, we’ll still keep an eye on INP, just in case it forms a “bull flag” pattern that could send it another leg higher in the short-term.
Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO), which we thoroughly discussed in yesterday’s newsletter, continued building on its recent gains, and also moved above last week’s high. However, because the broad market may still be in correction mode, we prefer “pullback” buy entries right now, rather than “breakout” buy entries. That’s why we bought IEO yesterday, rather than MOO. Nevertheless, we still plan to grab some MOO on a pullback, preferably to the area of its 20-day EMA support.
In yesterday’s closing commentary, we said, “The Nasdaq Composite remains below its 200-day moving average, but not by a wide enough margin that one strong day of gains couldn’t push it back above. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are sitting right on support of their 20-day exponential moving averages, which they have been glued to for the past three days.” Indeed, one strong day of gains has pushed the Nasdaq back above its 200-day moving average, while both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials bounced off support of their 20-day exponential moving averages. Still, yesterday’s overly light volume gives us cause for concern, as does the considerable amount of overhead supply that remains from the pullback of the past two weeks. Overall, stay alert, and be prepared to close positions on the wrong side of the market if stocks suddenly confirm a strong move in either direction.
Today’s Watchlist:
There are no new setups in the pre-market today, though MOO remains on our watchlist for a potential pullback entry. We will send an Intraday Trade Alert if/when we enter anything new.
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices.
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Open positions (coming into today):
- Per Intraday Trade Alert, we bought IEO yesterday morning.
- QID hit our trailing stop, knocking us out of the trade with a scratch. Since we raised our stop upon noticing the lack of downside follow-through in the Nasdaq last Friday, all the risk was removed from the QID trade, while still allowing for potential capital gains if stocks sold off yesterday.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
- For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.
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SLV long (700 shares from May 4 entry) – bought 12.72, stop 12.22, target 15.12, unrealized points = + 0.86, unrealized P/L = + $602
UNG long (400 shares from May 6 entry) – bought 14.84, stop 14.22, target 19.80, unrealized points = + 1.33, unrealized P/L = + $532
TAN long (400 shares from May 13 entry) – bought 8.16, stop 6.53, target 12.88, unrealized points = + 0.66, unrealized P/L = + $264
FXY long (250 shares from April 24 entry) – bought 102.41, stop 100.80, target 112.20, unrealized points = + 0.81, unrealized P/L = + $203
IEO long (150 shares from May 18 entry) – bought 43.16, stop 39.20, target 52.10, unrealized points = + 0.21, unrealized P/L = + $32
Closed positions (since last report):
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QID long (250 shares from May 12 entry) – bought 37.80, sold 37.88, points = + 0.08, net P/L = + $15
Current equity exposure ($100,000 max. buying power):
- $51,813
Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader