Commentary:
After opening near the flat line, the major indices oscillated in a narrow, sideways range throughout most of the day. A modest rally in the final hour of trading lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which rose 0.6% and 0.7% respectively, to their fifth straight day of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average similarly closed 0.8% higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 continued to outperform with a 1.1% gain, as the S&P Midcap 400 increased 0.7%. The main stock market indexes settled at their intraday highs.
Although stocks logged respectable gains last Friday, they did so on the lightest turnover in weeks. Total volume in the NYSE receded 23%, while volume in the Nasdaq limped in 18% lighter than the previous day’s level. In both exchanges, volume fell back below 50-day average levels. Despite the broad market’s percentage gains, the significantly slower pace of trading made for a relatively dull session. The S&P 500 advanced in every session last week, but only two of those days were backed by the confirmation of higher volume. Overall, last week’s gains were primarily the result of a lack of sellers, rather than an abundance of bulls. This is notable because a string of light-volume gains can be easily wiped out by just one day of heavier volume selling amongst institutions.
Last Thursday, we pointed out the relative strength and bullish setup in iShares Emerging Markets (EEM). Though EEM has moved slightly higher since then, a closer look at ETFs of country-specific emerging markets revealed two ETFs with more relative strength. While EEM continues to test resistance of its recent consolidation, both Market Vectors Russia (RSX) and iShares Brazil (EWZ) made convincing moves to new highs within their ascending trends last week. Below are daily charts of both ETFs, followed by a two-week “percentage change chart” that illustrates their relative strength versus EEM:
This week, corporate earnings season kicks into high gear. A plethora of market-moving companies, ranging from Google (GOOG) to Goldman Sachs (GS) to Intl. Business Machines (IBM), are scheduled to trumpet their latest quarterly results in the coming days. The relatively light volume levels experienced last week were likely the result of mutual funds, hedge funds, and other institutions waiting on the sidelines until the upcoming batch of earnings results can be assessed. As such, be prepared for higher volatility and indecision this week.
In our October 9 commentary, we illustrated how the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow each closed right at key short-term resistance of their late-September highs. Going into today, the same resistance remains in effect for the Nasdaq, which closed just a hair below the previous day’s high. The S&P 500 exceeded its late-September high, but not by a convincingly wide margin. The Dow managed to finish the week at a new 52-week closing high, but remains below last month’s intraday highs. Basically, those same resistance levels remain a potential point of contention in the upcoming week. Until the main stock market indexes convincingly rally above their September highs, an extra ounce of caution is required on the long side of the market, especially due to last week’s light volume on the way up, as well as the slew of upcoming earnings reports.
Today’s Watchlist:
There are no new setups in the pre-market. If we enter anything new, we’ll promptly send an Intraday Trade Alert.
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices.
- No changes to our open positions.
- For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
Having trouble seeing the position summary graphic above?
Click here to view it directly on your Internet browser instead.
Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader