Commentary:
Monday was a very difficult day for Wall Street. Stocks got pummeled yesterday as volume increased. All five major indices closed decisively lower and near session lows. The market was under duress for most of the day. The small-cap Russell 2000, S&P MidCap 400 and Nasdaq slid by 2.3%, 2.2% and 2.0% respectively. The S&P 500 met a similar fate as it dropped by 1.8%. Although hardly respectable, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell a lesser 1.2% yesterday.
Market internals were quite bearish on Monday. Volume rose by 10.3% on the Nasdaq and 8.2% on the NYSE. Further, the spread between declining and advancing volume was huge. On the NYSE the ratio of declining to advancing volume ended the session at a stunning 30 to 1. The Nasdaq did not fare much better as the spread ratio finished at 11 to 1 in favor of declining volume. The combination of declining prices and decidedly negative internals points directly to significant institutional distribution yesterday.
Yesterday, the iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI) gapped down to break both its 3-day low and recently formed uptrend line. EWI now offers significant downside potential on a bounce back into resistance near the downtrend line. Another factor contributing to EWI’s weakness is the down trending 200-day MA. It is generally ill-advised to purchase securities that are trading below a down trending 200-day moving average. We are carefully monitoring EWI for a potential short entry into resistance.
During the recent eight day uptrend, the iShares Dow Jones Transportation Index ETF (IYT) showed excellent relative strength as it rallied to a new 52-week high. Over the past three days this ETF has reversed with the market but now is trading near support of its 20-day EMA and 50-day MA. An undercut of this key support area followed by several days of consolidation may present a buying opportunity in this fund.
Given yesterday’s follow through selloff, it is clear that the market has met significant resistance near the 52-week highs. European ETFs are under major duress as they have for the most part lost support of their respective 200-day moving averages. When markets turn abruptly it often becomes quite difficult to find either long or short trades that provide reasonable risk/reward entries. Consequently, it prudent to reduce share size and/or to avoid entering new positions until the volatility subsides.
Today’s Watchlist:
There are no new setups for today. We will send an Intraday Alert if any new trades are made.
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices
- FXA was removed from the watchlist.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
- For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.
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Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader