The Wagner Daily – February 18, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
closed positions:
position notes:
- Per intraday alert, sold $AAPL short.
US Markets will be closed on Monday, February 21. The Wagner Daily will not be published on Sunday night but will be back Monday evening for Tuesday’s session. Enjoy the long weekend!
Thursday’s selloff in the major indexes increased the odds of the trend reversing lower after a few weeks of higher prices. The Nasdaq 100 set a second lower high on Thursday and is close to printing a second lower low. The same goes for the S&P 500, which has once again joined the Nasdaq 100 below the 200-day MA.
As of this writing, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were trading roughly +0.8% higher. If these prices hold up through Friday’s open, then we may be able to short into strength via an intraday alert.
Per intraday alert, initiated a 12% short position in $AAPL as it broke below the 20-day EMA. $DDOG long remains open.
A few short setups from the unofficial watchlist worked out well. $CRWD and $DOCN were hit hard.
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There are no new official setups for Friday. Although we are monitoring a handful of setups on the short side, it may be tough to list anything pre-market with the futures up almost 1%. Le’s see how the market opens and go from there. As always, we will send an intraday alert if any action is taken.
$TWTR, $SNAP, and $SNOW are a few short setups we are monitoring. $ENPH, $RBLX, $APPS, $PLUG, $SE, and $ISRG are a few more.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- Longs – watching $DDOG and $DOCS
- Shorts – see the tickers mentioned above
See you in the chat room,
Rick
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rc2qIXer0HMbVutBrv4mfDgunJBcZX6_C5LiCnq-4iU/edit?usp=shari
For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active. However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go. If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions. If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade. For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%).
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