The Wagner Daily – February 17, 2022
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The Wagner Daily – February 17, 2022
Proven swing trading strategy, top ETF & stock picks, and market timing model…since 2002
MTG Market Timing Model – SELL
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
closed positions:
position notes:
- $IOT and $DDOG buy stops triggered.
- Stopped out of $DLTR and $IOT.
Broad market averages recovered from a weak open and pushed more than 1% off the lows of the day into the close. The Nasdaq Composite printed a bullish outside day and almost closed in positive territory after being down as much as -1.5%.
Given all the news that is dominating the headlines (Russia/Ukraine, inflation, Fed raising rates, etc), the major indexes held up better than expected after a weak open. A positive day overall. That being said, the market is still a chop fest and vulernable to further weakness as we do not have a clear buy signal in place.
The model portfolio stopped out of $DLTR and $IOT for small loss. $IOT was only a 3% position, as we wanted to keep our loss to roughly 1/3 of a full loss.
$DDOG was added to the model portfolio and closed with a 2% gain. $184 looks to be resistance.
There are no new official setups for Thursday. Below are a few unofficial setups that could be in play.
$GTLB could be in play over Wednesday’s high for a quick pop based on the tight trading range above the 20-day EMA. This is not the type of setup we look to play in a strong market, as our focus is generally on stocks within 20% of a 52-week high.
Not an official setup.
$EDR is a good example of a chart with a bullish consolidation that lacks a proper volume signature. The price has tightened up from left to right on the chart with VCP like action. There are two entries, one over the two-day high (early) and the other over the swing high. Although the price looks good, volume has yet to step in to let us know the stock is “in play”.
Not an official setup.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- Longs GTLB – 75.30 (pop off lows) $RIVN – 67.30 (pop off lows)
- Shorts $OKU – short at 158.000, $DOCN – 59.55 (others to watch, $ROKU $CRWD $TWTR $RH
See you in the chat room,
Rick
For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active. However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go. If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions. If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade. For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%).
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts
- Longs – watching $BCRX $AOSL $CMC
- Shorts – $NET $CRWD $DOCN $TWTR $SHOP
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