The Wagner Daily – Energy Strong, Financials In Play

The Wagner Daily – January 12, 2022

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL

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Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

Day two of a new rally attempt is in the books with another day of solid gains for most broad market averages.

The S&P 500 reclaimed the 50-day MA and closed just above the 20-day EMA on lighter volume. The close was just below the 10-day EMA and in between the 50% and 61.8% fibo levels. Let’s see how the price holds up at resistance.

The Nasdaq 100 is still below the 10, 20, and 50-day MAs, with resistance from the 50% fibo and declining 10ema in the $387-388 area.

Energy stocks have performed best but are a bit too extended in the short term for a low risk buy point. 

Financials are also strong with $RJF potentially in play on a breakout. This is not an official setup.

$F has formed a bull-flag-like pattern with the 8-day EMA catching up. A move through the two-day high could spark some buying interest. This is not an official setup.

On the short side, most setups are maybe a day or two away from lower-risk entry points.

$TWLO is a former leading stock that is now in a downtrend with the moving averages in proper order, 20<50<200. After a breakdown from a 4-week consolidation at the lows, the price has bounced higher the past two days and should be monitored for a short entry near the declining 10 and 20-day EMAs.

There are no official setups for Wednesday’s session. Let’s see how major indexes react to resistance.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• Long watchlist – $AER $F $RJF $TSLA $GM (all entries over the prior day’s high)
• Short watchlist – $ZEN (below yest low), just watching a handful of others $DDOG $TWTR $TWLO $FIVN $OKTA

See you in the chat room,

Rick

For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active.  However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go.   If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions.  If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade.   For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%).

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