The Wagner Daily – Few energy stocks in play, $PXD an official setup

The Wagner Daily – February 10, 2022

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

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MTG Market Timing Model –  BUY (smaller buys for now until conditions improve)

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• Stopped out of half of $USP.

Commentary:

Stocks broke out from a four-day long trading range Wednesday and did so on a pick up in volume on both the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000, and $IWP (growth ETF) all reclaimed the 20-day EMA on the daily chart.

The price and volume action of the major indexes has improved the last two weeks; however, one concern we have with the current rally is the lack of stocks setting new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows which is still in negative territory on the Nasdaq and just barely turning positive on the NYSE.

Mode portfolio activity – $ARRK and $UPS were added to the portfolio. Per intraday alert, we stopped out of half of $UPS for a small 1% loss but will look to re-enter on strength (we will send out an intraday alert if any action is taken).  Note the new stop in $CF ahead of earnings.  If the price gives back more than half of Tuesday’s reversal candle then we will exit with a small loss as we don’t have a decent profit buffer.  

Our nightly scans did not turn up many actionable setups, though we did find a handful of energy stocks with NR7-type action after a pause or pullback. $PXD, $CLR, $SLB, and $VLO are a few that could be in play.  

We do have one new official setup in $PXD.  Earnings are 2/16 but we will hold through the report if we have a decent buffer.  

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• None

See you in the chat room,

Rick

For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active.  However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go.   If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions.  If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade.   For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%). 

This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.

https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts

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