The Wagner Daily – Market Update: Limited Longs, Shorts Watch

The Wagner Daily – February 14, 2022

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

Friday’s selling has the current market rally hanging on by a thread with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite back below the 50 and 200-day MAs (10 and 40-week MAs on weekly).

Other than oil and a few fertilizer names there isn’t much to do on the long side.

As for shorts, our weekend scans did produce a few setups but they are not official.

Both charts below are consolidating near the lows and may soon be headed much lower if market conditions remain weak.

Friday’s action was pretty tight on the daily which makes for low-risk entry points below the prior day’s low. Watch out for false triggers on the open if the price opens below the prior day’s low.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

Depending on market conditions:

• Longs –
• Shorts – $NVAX $MRNA

See you in the chat room,

Rick

For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active.  However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go.   If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions.  If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade.   For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%). 

This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.

https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts

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