The Wagner Daily – March 4, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
closed positions:
position notes:
- Per intraday alert, sold $DDOG due to the break of the 50ma. Bought $LYV.
The weekly video will return next Friday.
Thursday turned into a wild ride in the Nasdaq 100 futures, starting with a strong morning session that opened roughly 1% above the prior day’s close on the Nasdaq 100 index. The chart below details the action that led to a 4.5% selloff from the pre-market high to the post-market low (as of this writing) in the Nasdaq 100 futures.
Thursday’s higher open led to a false trigger in $LYV which triggered its buy stop within the first 5-minutes of trading. For those who watch the market on the open, the first 5-minutes of trading in some stocks can be challenging due to price discovery (wild prints) until the market settles down. $LYV held above the buy point for less than a minute before selling off, which is usually a bad sign when it is on the open.
Per intraday alert, sold $DDOG for a loss due to the price losing the 50-day MA.
Given the wild action on Thursday and heavy selling after the close, there are no new official setups for Friday. It’s tough to make much progress when conditions are this volatile.
Below are a few charts we are monitoring…these setups are not official.
$TPX short setup based on Thursday’s tight trading range. A big gap down would negate the entry.
$SLB is holding on to support .
Tight trading range in $SRRA on Thursday following a recent downtrend line break.
Whenever the market (ideally the Nasdaq) attempts to bottom out, we look for a few things:
- Higher lows, market should hold the low set on day one of the new rally attempt
- Market reclaims 10-day SMA and eventually reclaims the 20-day EMA (within a few weeks)
- Follow through day (buy signal) prints on day 4 or later of a new rally attempt (may occur before or after the index reclaims the 20-day EMA)
- New leadership emerges to confirm the fresh new buy signal
- New 52-week highs outnumber 52-week lows several days in a row
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- Longs – $SLB $SRRA $TAP $PVG $BXP
- Shorts – $BYND $TPX $DKS $NVDA (gaps may ruin these setups)
See you in the chat room,
Rick
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts
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