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market timing model: S&P 500 BUY, No FTD day in Nasdaq Composite yet, but price is above 20ema
Our timing model was designed to keep trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
open positions:
closed positions:
position notes:
Commentary:
The Nasdaq Composite closed below support at 13,000 with a second day in a row of heavy volume distribution. Conditions appear to be deteriorating further, as stocks on our watchlist that were showing relative strength are now joining the selloff.
Despite the recent weakness, the Nasdaq is still above the March low and only needs one follow-through day to produce a buy signal.
The S&P 500 closed below the 20-day EMA for the first time since reclaiming the average on 3/9 and is in danger of losing its uptrend status if there is further weakness on Thursday.
The DJIA is now the only index we follow that is still trading above the 20-da EMA.
There isn’t much to write about tonight. Our watchlists have been hit hard and the reward to risk ratios simply do not favor long entries.
Cash is king for now.
Although $AMAT struggled at new highs on Wednesday, its relative strength is impressive. $MKSI and $ICHR are a few other semis that could be in play down the road if/when conditions stabilize.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
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