The Wagner Daily – Market Timing Model Shifts to Sell Signal

The Wagner Daily – April 13, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell due to both the S&P 500 and Nadsaq Comp below the 20 and 50-day MAs

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

Stocks remain in a downtrend led by weakness in large-cap tech.

The Nasdaq Composite closed near support around 13,300. 

The S&P 500 also closed below the 50-day MA for the second day in a row and unless it can bounce back within the next day or two may be headed to the 4,300 area.

The S&P 500 joined the Nasdaq Composite below the 50-day MA this week which puts the timing model back in sell mode.  For the model to return to buy mode either the S&P or Nasdaq must close back above the 20-day EMA.  Note that all our buy/sell decisions are not based on the timing model as we need to have a bit more freedom to adjust to market conditions, especially when the price action is volatile.  

There isn’t much to do right now as the broad-based averages are too extended to the downside to add new short exposure. Long setups have also dried up, which isn’t a surprise with major indexes in a downtrend the past two weeks.

The only longs that are in play continue to be commodity-based, but timing is crucial on these trades as entries tend to work better on weakness than strength.

$TECK is a coal, copper, zinc, and gold miner that is trading near highs with a 97 RS rating from IBD. A recent false breakout led to a shakeout below the 20-day EMA and recovery back above. Commodity-based trades should be entered on weakness which makes $TECK in play near the 20-day EMA with a stop below the swing low. This is not an official setup as we already have a few open positions in coal and gold miners.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• Longs – $TECH – buy near 20ema, stop swing low. Other stocks in play over yest. high – $NOC $LXU $BPT
• Shorts –

Press HERE (link restricted to paid members) to view this week’s stock watchlist, an excellent starting point for monitoring the health of the market and finding the best stocks for swing trading.

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