The Wagner Daily – Exited $NUGT for 3% Gain: Good Trade or Missed Opportunity?

The Wagner Daily – April 25, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell due to both the S&P 500 and Nadsaq Comp below the 20 and 50-day MAs

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

After two ugly days of selling in a row, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are likely headed for a test of the March low.

Despite the wild action, the S&P 500 is still one big chop fest with support in the 4,150 – 4,220 range.

Nasdaq Composite

Leadership was also hit hard with $XLE breaking the 20-day EMA.

Semiconductor stocks are breaking key support levels. $SMH lost support at $248 once again with the moving averages stacked to the downside… 20ema < 50ma < 200ma.

With the market so extended in the short-term, there isn’t much out there that is low-risk on the short side. At some point, the market should see a bounce but whether that comes before or after a test of the low we do not know.

Below are a few unofficial short setups.  Protective stops can be placed above the high of the trigger day.

Last week, we stopped out of $NUGT for a 3% gain. While a 3% gain isn’t a big deal, we were happy with our exit given the ugly gap down on 4/19. Although there was a bearish close the day before on 4/18, a bad close should always be confirmed by further weakness the next day. Getting out on 4/18 would have made us more money but that would have been a prediction, not good trading. In successful breakouts, we often see bearish reversal candles that shake out weak hands only to move higher the very next day.   The only time we would not wait for confirmation is when a bearish close prints after a blow-off type move after an extended run.

For those who prefer to trade breakouts in leading growth stocks, this market isn’t healthy and cash is king.

Unofficial short setups in $RH and $BBY worked from last Friday. There are no new official setups for Monday. See unofficial trades setups below.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• Longs –
• Shorts – $NFLX – short at 209.64, $TSLA short at 993.49.

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.

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