The Wagner Daily – S&P 500 Vulnerable to Selling

The Wagner Daily – May 19, 2021

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MTG Market Timing Model – S&P 500 sell, Nasdaq Composite sell

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• $CF buy stop triggered.

Commentary:

The S&P 500 closed below the 20-day EMA for the second time in six sessions and is vulnerable to further selling in the short term…unless it can reclaim the 20-day EMA on Wednesday, 

If there is follow-through on Tuesday’s selling, then the 50-day MA around 4,080 should serve as support.

The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 have failed to reclaim the 10-day EMA and are still below the 20 and 50-day MAs.

Based on the stalling at the 10 and 50-day MAs the past few days, we are taking a short position in $QQQ by going long the inverted ultra-short ETF $SQQQ over the three-day high, with a stop below last Friday’s low.

The target area for the short is around $307, which is the March 25 low on the daily chart of $QQQ.

There isn’t much to discuss tonight in terms of new buy setups, which isn’t much of a surprise given Tuesday’s weak close. Please note the new split stop in $CF.  

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• none

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