The Wagner Daily – Waiting for $PATH Entry Signal

The Wagner Daily – May 26, 2021

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MTG Market Timing Model – S&P 500 sell, Nasdaq Composite sell

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• Sold 1/3 of RBLX for a 10% gain.

Commentary:

Note – US markets will be closed on Monday, May 31. The Wagner Daily will not be published on Sunday night but will be back on Monday night for Tuesday’s session.

Since the swing low of 5/12, the Nasdaq Composite is nine days into a bounce that has recaptured the 20 and 50-day MAs. While price has done its job, the volume has been disappointing with no signs of accumulation. Last Thursday and Monday’s +1% gains in the Nasdaq were solid, but volume failed to tick higher on both days. Volume did pick up on Tuesday, but the price stalled above the prior day’s high and pulled back in, closing just below break-even.

Can the Nasdaq hold the 20 and 50-day MAs?

The S&P 500 stalled at resistance around 4,200 and closed -0.2% lower. S&P 500 leadership is under pressure, with sector ETFs $XLF (-1%), $IYT (-1%), and $XLB (-0.8%) relatively weak. Energy and Banks were also hit hard, with both $XLE and $KBE down -2%.

Per intraday alert, sold 1/3 of $RBLX for a +10% gain due to less than ideal conditions. In a strong market we usually do not sell partial size until up 20% or more. Note the new stops which will prevent the trade from turning into a loss.

$PATH stalled at $88 for the second day in a row. We’d like to see the price settle down and tighten up near the 10-ema before we enter. Let’s see how the price holds up near the highs.

There are no new setups for Wednesday due to the lack of actionable ideas from our scans. How the rest of the week unfolds should provide us with more clues. Can $RBLX and $PATH close out the week strong? Is $NVDA back in play?

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• $COUR – buy at 38.25 (break of downtrend line for pop off the low).

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