The Wagner Daily – Update on $APP and $PATH

The Wagner Daily – June 1, 2021

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MTG Market Timing Model – buy mode (though the new signal is weak so far)

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• $PATH stop triggered

Commentary:

The Nasdaq Composite remains on a buy signal after reclaiming the 20-day and 50-day MAs last week.  The price wedged higher last week and is vulnerable to further selling if Friday’s low does not hold, which could lead to a test of the 10-day EMA or 50-day MA. 

So far, there isn’t much power behind the recent buy signal, with very few stocks breaking out and following through. Patience is key here, as we want to avoid adding too much exposure until there is more evidence that the Nasdaq is ready to move higher.

The S&P 500 remains in chop mode after printing a weekly hanging man candle a few weeks ago. Further chop would be ideal here, as this would allow the index to digest the last move up. 

S&P 400 Midcap Growth ETF $IWP reclaimed the 10-week MA last week with the last swing tightening up from 16% to 10%. Like the Nasdaq Composite, a constructive base.

Due to the lack of actionable buy setups, there are no new trade setups for Tuesday’s session. The model portfolio stopped out of $PATH last Friday. Note the new stops in the open positions section above.

$APP broke out to new highs last Friday. We haven’t seen much follow-through in breakouts as of late, which is why our stop is now the low of the breakout day.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• $AMAT – buy stop at 140.00 or pullback to rising 8 or 10-day EMA
• $UPS – buy stop at 217.00
• $CROX – reversal candle buy at 102.70

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