The Wagner Daily – Exiting $LSPD Trade

The Wagner Daily – June 10, 2021

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MTG Market Timing Model – buy mode

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

•    Note the new stops highlighted in light pink in the open positions watchlist above.

Commentary:

It was a busy afternoon for the model portfolio, as we cut back exposure in stocks that failed to follow through. We were able to exit a few stocks for a small gain such as $UPST, $ZS, and $SE.  $LSPD was sold after a false breakout for a 4% loss.  Per yesterday’s report, we sold $LESL on the open for a -2% loss as there was no reason to stick around following news of a secondary.

Despite the Nasdaq reclaiming the 20-day EMA and generating a buy signal, growth continues to struggle with a higher than normal failure rate for breakouts.

$UPST formed an ugly squat after an explosive breakout and nasty selloff on 6/4. A squat is a breakout that runs higher but reverses and closes near the breakout pivot or below and in the lower third of the day’s range. Generally speaking, if the squat day low holds for the next few days, then the price has a shot of re-breaking out in the short term.  $UPST held the low for two days before selling off on Wednesday and closing below the 10-day EMA,  a sell signal.

Like $UPST, an explosive breakout and nasty selloff in one day.

We sold $LSPD late in the day as price was closing below the low of the breakout day and breaking the 10-day EMA. No reason to stick around.

Not all growth-related breakouts have failed, as $QFIN, $RBLX, $NVDA, $ASAN and a few others have worked out well.  However, too many breakouts have failed to ignore.  

There are no new setups for Thursday as we are sitting tight and monitoring remaining longs $RBLX, $NVDA (with tight stop), and $DV.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• Watching $STAA $HAYW $MRVI $CDNA $TUYA $SPT $BMBL

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