The Wagner Daily – Market Trend Analysis

The Wagner Daily – June 10, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  BUY (SP-500 and Nasdaq above 20ema on daily) close

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• Per intraday alert, sold $CNX at breakeven and stopped out of $TQQQ and $PTEN.

Commentary:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite S&P 500 sliced through the 20-day EMA on a pick up in volume ahead of Friday’s big CPI report at 8:30 am EST. The heavy selling was the third distribution day for the Nasdaq since the 5/26 follow-through day. 

With the Nasdaq and S&P below the 20-day EMA, the timing model will be back on a sell unless the main averages can reclaim the 20-day EMA within the next day or two.

Popular sector ETFs $XLK, $XLV, $IBB, $XLB, $SMH, and $XLF all closed below the 20-day EMA as well.

Once a follow-through day prints, it’s our job is to monitor the market for clues and acct accordingly.  Below are a few of the questions we ask daily/weekly. 

• Can the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 hold the rising 20-day ema? – so far no!
• Avoid distribution days? No again, with 3-4 on the Nasdaq
• How are recent breakouts working? Aside from energy, ugly!
• Is leadership expanding? No.  Just the opposite, with shipping stocks breaking down and $MOS/$CF breaking the 50ma.

The model portfolio is back to 100% cash after stopping out of $TQQQ, $PTEN, and $CNX.

There are no new setups for Friday. Let’s see how the market reacts to the CPI number. If conditions remain weak, then we will wait for a bounce to add some short exposure.  

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.

https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts

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