The Wagner Daily – Rising Commodities ETFs

The Wagner Daily – June 15, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  BUY (SP-500 and Nasdaq above 20ema on daily) close

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

Broad market averages closed slightly lower but off the lows of the session and above the prior day’s low. As mentioned in Monday’s report, let’s see if the recent undercut of the lower trendline leeds to a short-term bounce.

Energy stocks and ETFs have provided leadership all year long but are beginning to show signs of a trend that is tiring out. Both $XLE and $XOP broke the 20-day EMA (on the daily chart) and have been showing signs of weakness on the weekly chart. At a minimum, these ETFs will likely need 1-2 months or more of consolidation to reset.

$XLE weekly chart:

For the trend trader, there are very few charts that are trending higher above a rising 20, 50, and 200-day MA.

What is moving higher? US dollar $UUP, inverse bond ETFs or hedges ($TMV / $PFIX), and commodity based ETFs $CORN and $SOYB.

$CORN and $SOYB could be in play down the road as both are consolidating in a tight range near highs.

As for the short side, we are waiting for lower-risk setups to develop on a bounce closer to the 8 or 20-day EMAs.

For those new to the report, our focus is on explosive growth stocks when the market is healthy. With the timing model on a sell signal, the focus shifts to shorting when possible.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• Longs –
• Shorts -Add

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.

https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts

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