The Wagner Daily – Oil Slips: Weakness Spreading

The Wagner Daily – June 16, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL 

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

NOTE: US markets will be closed on Monday, June 20. Our next report is Tuesday (6/21) and will be sent out by 5pm EST on Monday.

Have a Happy and Safe Holiday Weekend!

Stocks rallied higher in reaction to news of the Fed raising the fed funds rate by 0.75%.

Wednesday’s action wasn’t overly impressive, just more of a bounce-type feel from oversold levels. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 2.5% gain vs 1.5% in the S&P 500.  

Wednesday was day 1 of a new rally attempt.  

The Nasdaq Composite also showed subtle signs of relative strength by closing back above the prior swing low and Monday’s high while the S&P 500 did not.

Look for Thursday’s open and morning session to hold above the prior day’s close, as this would be a sign of strength in the short term.

Leadership has thinned out the past few weeks and even energy is showing signs of weakness. As mentioned in yesterday’s report,  $XLE showed bearish price and volume patterns the past few weeks which led to a selloff down to the 50-day MA.

Now the daily chart of crude oil is below the 20-day EMA.  

Although it looks like the market could bounce higher from here, low-risk long setups are nowhere to be found. Ideally, we’d love to see another day or two of higher prices to produce quality short setups, which would be in line with the prevailing market trend.

For now, cash remains king.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• Longs –
• Shorts – if market turns weak, $TWTR $CRWD

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.

https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts

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