The Wagner Daily – $PATH Tight Range, No Entry Yet

The Wagner Daily – June 28, 2021

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MTG Market Timing Model – buy mode due to strength in Nasdaq Composite (still above 20ema)

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

•    No trades triggered.

Commentary:

The Nasdaq stalled at 14,400 late last week and is a bit extended from the 10-day EMA and possibly due for a short-term pullback. If so, then a 1.5% to 2% selloff would be in line with prior pullbacks since the price reclaimed the 20-day EMA.  This is just a guide as anything can happen.  

There are no new official setups for Monday with the model portfolio already at 10 open positions and the Nasdaq Composite a bit extended from the 10-day EMA.  Let’s see how current open positions hold up during the next few days before adding more exposure.  We usually limit the number of open positions in the model portfolio to 12 at one time. For most swing and position traders, anywhere from 5 to 15 open positions at once is reasonable.  Every trader must determine their own limit. 

$SHOP closed with a bullish reversal candle off the 10-day EMA last Friday. We are already long $SHOP but will look to add if last Friday’s reversal holds. There is no official entry yet.

From last week’s unofficial watchlist, $SNAP is up around 5% from its entry. 

$PATH has formed a tight trading range the past few weeks after reversing at $67 on June 10. A move through week’s high and the 10-day EMA could put $PATH in play. No official entry yet.

Watching $ROKU for a pullback entry after an explosive move through $360 and $400. No official entry yet.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• $SHOP – buy at 1,491
• $PATH – buy at 70.41 (partial size and add more if stock closes above 10-day EMA and follows through)
• Watching – $WISH $DMTK $MNDY $ANVS for entries over the prior day’s high
• See you in the Live Trading RoomRick
  For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active.  However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go.   If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions.  If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade.   For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%).
  Click on the link below to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets.This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rc2qIXer0HMbVutBrv4mfDgunJBcZX6_C5LiCnq-4iU/edit?usp=sharing
  
  
  
  
  
  DISCLAIMER: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a high degree of risk for substantial losses in trading securities. All data and material on this website and/or electronically delivered to individuals is for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. By using the content on this document, user understands and agrees to full terms of this disclaimer.
  ©2002-2021 Morpheus Trading, LLC
  Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.

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quick jump to:today’s watchlistopen & closed positionsmarket commentary

resources:subscriber guideour trading strategyblog

handy links:

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MTG Market Timing Model – buy mode due to strength in Nasdaq Composite (still above 20ema)

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

•    No trades triggered.

Commentary:

The Nasdaq stalled at 14,400 late last week and is a bit extended from the 10-day EMA and possibly due for a short-term pullback. If so, then a 1.5% to 2% selloff would be in line with prior pullbacks since the price reclaimed the 20-day EMA.  This is just a guide as anything can happen.  

There are no new official setups for Monday with the model portfolio already at 10 open positions and the Nasdaq Composite a bit extended from the 10-day EMA.  Let’s see how current open positions hold up during the next few days before adding more exposure.  We usually limit the number of open positions in the model portfolio to 12 at one time. For most swing and position traders, anywhere from 5 to 15 open positions at once is reasonable.  Every trader must determine their own limit. 

$SHOP closed with a bullish reversal candle off the 10-day EMA last Friday. We are already long $SHOP but will look to add if last Friday’s reversal holds. There is no official entry yet.

From last week’s unofficial watchlist, $SNAP is up around 5% from its entry. 

$PATH has formed a tight trading range the past few weeks after reversing at $67 on June 10. A move through week’s high and the 10-day EMA could put $PATH in play. No official entry yet.

Watching $ROKU for a pullback entry after an explosive move through $360 and $400. No official entry yet.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• $SHOP – buy at 1,491
• $PATH – buy at 70.41 (partial size and add more if stock closes above 10-day EMA and follows through)
• Watching – $WISH $DMTK $MNDY $ANVS for entries over the prior day’s high

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