The Wagner Daily – SPY Reversal, Nasdaq Sell Signal?

The Wagner Daily – August 18, 2021

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MTG Market Timing Model – Nasdaq on stand by for sell, SP-500 still trend mode 

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• Stopped out of $AMD and $AA. Per intraday alert, sold $URI due to weak market conditions.

Commentary:

Volatility picked up for a second day in the row in the S&P 500, with the index once again recovering from an early selloff to close near the highs of the session. The afternoon rally closed just below the declining 20-period EMA on the hourly chart below.

While $SPY reversed off the 20-day EMA, the Nasdaq closed below the 20ema on the daily chart and is on stand-by for a sell signal. However, the first touch of the 50-day MA in several months should act as support.

Russell Midcap Growth ETF $IWP is similar to the Nasdaq in that the close below the 20-day EMA puts the ETF on alert for a sell but support from the 50-day MA is just below.

The model portfolio is 100% in cash after stopping out of $AMD, $AA, and $URI. Per intraday alert, sold $URI ahead of its stop due to the volatile action in the S&P 500.

This is a tough market to make progress in unless operating with more of a daytrading mindset.  There are no new official setups for Wednesday as there isn’t much out there that we feel comfortable listing as an official buy.

$DOCS and $UPST have held up well and are certainly ones to watch. Tough to trade these unless buying near support on the hourly chart.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• $DOCS – buy above $77.00, reclaim the 20ema on hourly
• $AMEH – buy at 78.70, downtrend line break
• Other stocks to watch: $PAYC $SKIN $U $CYBR $CVNA $AMD $DDOG $TEAM

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