The Wagner Daily – Nasdaq Hits a Breakout Pivot

The Wagner Daily – September 13, 2021

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MTG Market Timing Model – buy mode (but cautious) 

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• Per intraday alert, bought $RBLX.
• $MELI sell stop triggered for a very small loss.

Commentary:

Stocks closed out the week in ugly fashion, with broad market averages selling off sharply in the last two hours of trading. The Nasdaq Composite logged a distribution day but held the 20-day EMA. The S&P 500 sold off on lighter volume but broke the 20-day EMA on a closing basis.

If the Nasdaq loses the 20-day EMA, then the 10-week MA and prior breakout pivot is support. 

The model portfolio stopped out of $MELI on Friday for a near breakeven loss (a -1% loss on a 3% position). The tight stop was due to the lack of follow-through on the recent breakout attempt.

Per intraday alert, $RBLX was added to the portfolio as the price pushed through the morning high after bouncing off support of the 10-day EMA. The entry was based on last Thursday’s bullish engulfing candle off the 50-day EMA, with the price reclaiming the 10, 20, and 50-day MAs.

Friday’s late selling may lead to further weakness within the next few days. If so, then we will keep our eyes open for low-risk buy points in leading stocks, such as reversal candles around the 20 or 50-day MAs.

There are no new official setups for Monday as our game plan is to sit tight with current positions and see what sticks. All stops are in place. Note the adjusted stops in $ZIM. The plan is to leave a 1.75% position on with a stop below the rising 20-day EMA on a closing basis.

$ZI is one of a handful of stocks we are monitoring for a pullback entry.

Nothing official here, just watching for now:

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• Watching – $NVDA $SNAP $RBLX $CRWD $ZI $AFRM $ZIM $DOCN $LULU $DDOG $DLO $FIGS $NTRA

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