The Wagner Daily – S&P 500 Struggles Below 20-Day EMA

The Wagner Daily – September 14, 2021

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MTG Market Timing Model – buy mode (but cautious) 

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• Stopped out of partial $ZIM for an 18% gain.
• Stopped out of $SNAP and 3% of $DDOG.

Commentary:

The S&P 500 closed +0.2% higher but is still trading below the 20-day EMA which is our line in the sand for bull market action. If the S&P is unable to reclaim the 20-day EMA soon that would signal a change in character.

Market conditions deteriorated for growth on Monday with growth based ETFs underperforming ($IWP -0.6%, $ARKK -1.9%, and $FFTY -2.7%).

With these ETFs all below the 20-day EMA there isn’t much evidence to support adding new long exposure.

The model portfolio stopped out of all $SNAP, 3% of $DDOG, and partial size of $ZIM.

Note that we have a tight stop on the remaining $ZIM just below the 20-period EMA on the hourly chart. For those who want to be more patient with the trade, a break of the 10-day EMA or 20-day EMA could serve as a sell signal.

Given the struggle to make progress lately, we are content to book a near 20% gain on the remaining shares.

$DDOG stopped us out of our 3% add below the 20-day EMA before reversing back above in the afternoon. We are still long a 4% position from our first buy in late August at 132.59. Our new stop is just below Monday’s low, which is a 1% loss (if triggered). Either the price holds this level or we are out.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.Add

• No new setups – Just Watching – $ZI $AFRM $DOCN $LULU $DLO $FIGS $NTRA $AMEH $LC $DDOG $GLBE

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