The Wagner Daily – S&P 500 Breaks Uptrend, Futures Trade Below Swing Low

The Wagner Daily – September 16, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL (markets back below 20 & 50-day MAs   

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

Add

position notes:

• No trades.

Commentary:

The S&P 500 index broke an uptrend line with multiple touches on Thursday’s close.  Overnight, the S&P 500 futures followed through to the downside and is now trading below the recent swing low. 

The timing model is on a sell signal and for the most part, the model portfolio has avoided any damage during the recent selloff.  

Although there are several growth stocks showing great relative strength, market conditions are not ideal for buying on strength. 

With that in mind, we are only monitoring $SWAV for a long entry on weakness.   

On the weekly chart below, the uptrend line and the 10-week moving average line up around $260 (using a non-log chart).  

$PCTY is also showing strength with the 20-day ema slightly above the low of the gap-up day. If market conditions do not improve, a touch of the 50-day ma may be in order.

There are no new setups for Friday. During this selloff, we are staying away from the short side to focus on relative strength. The reason for this is that the short side can be extremely tricky in an extended bear market, especially as indexes approach prior support levels.

Unofficial Setups –

• Longs – $SWAV on pullback to 10-week ma
• Shorts – none

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

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