The Wagner Daily – $FSLR: Watch on Bounce, Entry Near 50-day MA

The Wagner Daily – October 17, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

Stocks ended a volatile week of trading with a disappointing session, as broad market averages failed to follow through on last Thursday’s positive turnaround and lost the majority of their gains.

The Nasdaq Composite set a new closing low on the year. 

Unless the price can recover back above 10,600 within the next few days, it is likely headed lower.  If lower, then look for a touch or undercut of the trendline connecting swing lows as short-term support.  

The S&P 500 regained its prior low from June last Thursday, then closed below it the next day.

For the second time in a few weeks, price was rejected by the top trendline and declining 20-day EMA. As with the Nasdaq, if the price does not recover within the next day then it may be headed for another leg lower.

In our last report, we highlighted the strength of energy names but many sold off with the broad market averages on Friday. Let’s see if $XLE is able to hold support and tighten up during the week.

On the short side, former leading stock $FSLR is one to watch on a bounce for an entry closer to the 50-day MA.  If triggered, then the 50-day MA plus some wiggle room is the stop.

Our timing model has done an excellent job of keeping us safe lately. For intermediate-term trend traders, cash remains king. Aggressive traders can look for short setups in leadership stocks that are breaking down below support from the 20 or 50-day MAs,  such as $FSLR, $VRTX, or $CELH.

Unofficial Setups –

• Longs – none (waiting for a clear buy signal)
• Shorts – $FSLR (on a bounce closer to the 50ma)

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

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