The Wagner Daily – S&P 500 Nears 20-Day EMA

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The Wagner Daily – November 4, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  BUY  (from 10/21/22 follow-through day buy signal)

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• Stopped out of $OXY and half of $PI

Commentary:

After several weeks of underperforming on the bounce off the lows, the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 are leading to the downside.  This week, the Nasdaq Composite broke through the 20-day EMA and closed below the follow-through day low, generating a sell signal and raising the probability of more selling.

The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its 20-day EMA and is still above the follow-through day low, so it’s in better shape technically to recover. 

Energy ETF $XLE is the only sector-based ETF that is trading above the 200-day moving average! Can financials join the party?

The model portfolio is down to 3% long exposure with a 1/4 position in $PI.

We are watching a few stocks for potential entries (see unofficial watchlist below).

$ENPH is not an official setup but we are monitoring the action for an entry next week if the price can hold the 8-day EMA.

We have a split market right now with the Nasdaq in trouble and the S&P 500 in danger of triggering a sell-signal…but still holding up.  Very tough market to operate in.  Keep position size small if taking on long exposure and be patient for lower-risk entries near support.  

Unofficial Watchlist

• Longs – $SLB $MEDP $PI (add) $WING $ENPH $FSLR (on pullback)
• Shorts – (none)

Rick 

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