The Wagner Daily – Energy ETFs: $OIH, $XLE Vulnerable to Profit-Taking

The Wagner Daily – November 8, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  BUY  (from 10/21/22 follow-through day buy signal)

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

The S&P 500 reclaimed the 20 and 50-day MAs on lighter volume Monday. Let’s see how this index holds up this week vs mid-term elections, inflation data, and last Wednesday’s ugly red candle, which is in control.

Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ is in bounce mode. The price may be able to push through the 20-day EMA for a day or two but let’s see where this index stands by Friday’s close.

Overall, our scans are not seeing many lower-risk buy setups out there in stocks within 25% of a 52-week high.  Our short-term plan is to take it slow and see how the broad-based averages hold up this week.

Energy ETFs $OIH and $XLE have taken out base highs after an extended move and may be vulnerable to some profit-taking within the next week or two. Not trying to call a top here, just noting that the charts are a bit extended from the 20-day EMA.

$BIIB failed another breakout attempt on Monday, but if Tuesday’s action remains in the trading wick of Monday, then we’d look for some follow-through to the upside if the price can take out Monday’s high. If the price action weakens, then a test of the rising 20-day EMA would be an ideal low-risk buy point.

After a big volume gap up above the base high, $SMCI is potentially in play on weakness on a touch of the 8-day EMA.

Unofficial Watchlist

• Longs – $BIIB $TMDX & $SMCI (pullback 8ema)
• Shorts – (none)

Rick 

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