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MTG Market Timing Model – BUY (from 10/21/22 follow-through day buy signal)
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:
position notes:
Commentary:
The S&P 500 reclaimed the 20 and 50-day MAs on lighter volume Monday. Let’s see how this index holds up this week vs mid-term elections, inflation data, and last Wednesday’s ugly red candle, which is in control.
Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ is in bounce mode. The price may be able to push through the 20-day EMA for a day or two but let’s see where this index stands by Friday’s close.
Overall, our scans are not seeing many lower-risk buy setups out there in stocks within 25% of a 52-week high. Our short-term plan is to take it slow and see how the broad-based averages hold up this week.
Energy ETFs $OIH and $XLE have taken out base highs after an extended move and may be vulnerable to some profit-taking within the next week or two. Not trying to call a top here, just noting that the charts are a bit extended from the 20-day EMA.
$BIIB failed another breakout attempt on Monday, but if Tuesday’s action remains in the trading wick of Monday, then we’d look for some follow-through to the upside if the price can take out Monday’s high. If the price action weakens, then a test of the rising 20-day EMA would be an ideal low-risk buy point.
After a big volume gap up above the base high, $SMCI is potentially in play on weakness on a touch of the 8-day EMA.
Unofficial Watchlist
Rick
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