The Wagner Daily – $MOD: A Beautiful Setup, Triggered but Quickly Reversed

The Wagner Daily – December 23, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of Dec. 15) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• Per intraday alert, sold $SMCI just below breakeven for a $5 loss in the 50k model account.

Commentary: 

Note – US markets will be closed next Monday, Dec. 26.  The Wagner Daily will not be published on Sunday, Dec. 25, but will return on Monday night, Dec. 26 for Tuesday’s session. 

Stocks were hit hard for much of Thursday’s session before rising from the lows in the afternoon, bringing an end to the market’s two-day rally. The Nasdaq Composite broke below its uptrend line, and further weakness from here would likely lead to a test or undercut of the October bottom.

$MOD is a pretty good example of what we have seen over the past few months. A beautiful setup that triggered on strong price and volume action. Only to give back the entire gain and more the following day.

Market conditions remain challenging which is why we continue to sit almost entirely in cash. The model portfolio bought a small 1/4 position in $SMCI on a pullback but exited the trade just below breakeven due to market weakness (small $5 loss on 50k account).

$MEDP held up well but with the market trending lower it is only a watch.

Solar stocks are holding up as well – $SHLS and $ARRY look pretty good

Unofficial Watchlist – 

• Longs – Watching $MEDP $ARRY $SHLS $FOUR
• Shorts – none

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

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